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'Ongoing Overhang' Hits Netflix Valuation, Overshadowing Strong Ad Growth

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter results on Jan. 20.

The company is likely to report its revenues and earnings broadly in line with expectations, according to Wedbush.

The Netflix Analyst: Analyst Alicia Reese maintained an Outperform rating, while cutting the price target from $150 to $115.

The Netflix Thesis: The company is likely to report revenues of $11.96 billion, versus consensus of $11.97 billion, and earnings in line with consensus of 55 cents per share, Reese said in the note.

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"Netflix's low churn rates are significant, particularly for advertisers, driven by the variety, quality, and depth of its content," she added.

Results and guidance are expected to suggest steady subscriber growth and rising ARM (average revenue per membership), driven by price hikes and a growing ads business, the analyst stated.

"Our quarterly survey points to steady performance in Q4 and an uptick in Q1," she further wrote.

Reese expects a significant increase in respondents who are likely to start or re-start a subscription in the first quarter of 2026. The price target has been reduced to reflect "the ongoing overhang from pending M&A," she said.

NFLX Price Action: Netflix shares were up 1.02% at $89.44 at the time of publication on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Netflix, with a market cap of $379.44 billion, operates in the highly competitive entertainment sector, where its P/E ratio of approximately 37 is notably elevated compared to industry averages, indicating strong growth expectations.

The stock’s 52-week range, from $82.11 to $134.11, reflects significant volatility, with the current price hovering closer to the lower end, suggesting potential investor caution amid changing market dynamics and increased competition in streaming services.

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