StubHub Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:STUB) is set to accelerate revenue growth as it leverages its dominant resale market share, launches new Direct Issuance initiatives, and rolls out advertising opportunities, aiming to outperform broader online marketplace trends.
Bank of America analyst Justin Post initiated coverage of StubHub with a Buy rating and a $25 price forecast, highlighting its dominance as North America’s largest secondary ticket marketplace with nearly 50% market share.
Bank of America said StubHub has been investing aggressively to expand its market share, with sales and marketing spend now exceeding $900 million, higher than some competitors’ total revenue. The firm believes this creates an opportunity to streamline spending and improve operating leverage.
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The analyst said he expects StubHub’s EBITDA margins to more than double in 2026 and approach 40% over the long term, driven by greater leverage in marketing spend, the Direct Issuance business turning profitable, and growth in the Advertising segment.
Additionally, the analyst identifies three near-term catalysts – the launch of advertising on the platform, new team partnership deals, and the upcoming U.S. World Cup that could fuel investor optimism and reinforce confidence in StubHub’s long-term growth.
A recent proprietary Bank of America survey of over 1,000 respondents highlights StubHub’s strong leadership in the competitive secondary ticketing market.
Among secondary platforms, StubHub ranked as the most frequently used site and scored slightly higher than major competitors in terms of buying experience and pricing perception.
The survey also indicates that consumers plan to maintain overall ticket spending levels over the next 12 months, but with a notable shift toward greater spending on secondary marketplaces.
Despite the favorable market dynamics, the core of the risk landscape remains execution on expectations, which is considered the top risk.
This execution risk is twofold: first, the challenge of management successfully rationalizing spend while simultaneously gaining market share, and second, the difficulty of rapidly achieving the planned Direct Issuance & Advertising ramp.
Other significant risks include take rate pressure stemming from the All-In Pricing mandate, the impact of dynamic pricing initiatives in primary markets, the potential for new secondary market regulatory initiatives, and the upcoming lock-up expiration in the first quarter of 2026.
According to the analyst’s estimates, the company is forecast to post a loss of $5.54 per share in 2025, a wider loss compared to 2024, before returning to profitability with EPS of $1.23 in 2026 and $2.44 in 2027.
The analyst said the $25 price forecast is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, which assigns a 10x multiple to 2026E Resale EBITDA and 2x to 2027E Direct Issuance sales. This equates to an implied 11x multiple on 2026E EBITDA.
Price Action: STUB shares were trading higher by 5.16% to $19.87 at last check Monday.
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