Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE:LLY)'s dominance in obesity therapeutics looks increasingly difficult to challenge, and Bank of America believes the market is still underestimating just how much growth lies ahead.
On Monday, the bank’s analyst Jason Gerberry reiterated a Buy rating on the stock, trimming his price objective slightly from $1,286 to $1,268. The adjustment wasn't about waning confidence. The stock was trading around $1,055 Monday.
Instead, Gerberry said there remains "room for stock upside" as Lilly continues to execute on key obesity launches and de-risk new therapies across "nearly every conceivable market segment."
Lilly's leadership in injectable GLP-1s is well understood. Where Bank of America sees the bigger disconnect is in what comes next.
"Sell-side consensus under-calls the Orfoglipron 2026E launch ramp," the analyst wrote, pointing both to the U.S. rollout and international expansion as sources of upside.
Orfoglipron Seen Launching Into A Ready Market
Orfoglipron is Lilly's oral GLP-1 weight-loss pill, and Bank of America expects it to enter the market in the second half of 2026 following expedited regulatory review.
Unlike injectable therapies, Orfoglipron removes refrigeration and injection barriers, making it easier to scale globally and more appealing to patients who are hesitant to start injections.
That ease of use matters. Expert feedback cited by the bank suggests Orfoglipron's lack of a fasting requirement gives it a compliance advantage over competing oral GLP-1s, including Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO)'s oral Wegovy.
Bank of America is forecasting $3 billion in Orfoglipron revenue in 2026, far above consensus estimates near $1 billion.
To put that in perspective, Gerberry noted that Lilly's Zepbound generated roughly $5 billion in U.S. sales in its first full year, even with early supply constraints and more limited access.
Access is where the story starts to change.
Government Access Changes The Math
A key pillar of Bank of America's bullish view is Lilly's recent U.S. government agreement, which allows Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries access to obesity medications at a fixed net price of $245, translating to roughly $50 per month out-of-pocket for patients.
While that agreement pressures headline pricing, the bank views it as a strategic trade-off.
Broader access is expected to drive higher patient volumes and, over time, increase pressure on commercial insurers to expand coverage as well.
In BofA's view, pricing headwinds in 2026 and 2027 should be more than offset by patient growth, reinforcing Lilly's early-mover advantage in obesity.
Long-Term Growth Story Intact
Looking further out, the firm sees Lilly's longer-term growth story as intact.
Several upcoming data readouts, including multiple Phase 3 trials for retatrutide (Triple G) in obesity, are expected to shape the next phase of the pharma giant.
BofA’s Gerberry sees particular opportunity in "super-obese" patients, with or without serious comorbidities, and believes those segments alone could support high-single-digit billion peak sales. On the competitive front, Bank of America expects Novo Nordisk's upcoming head-to-head obesity study to show non-inferiority and does not believe it will meaningfully impact Zepbound's position.
Taken together, the bank said Lilly's five- and seven-year sales growth trajectory supports a premium multiple, citing leadership in obesity, upcoming oral GLP-1 launches, expanding access channels, and a broad pipeline.
Even as a consensus long, Bank of America's message is clear: as orfoglipron moves closer to launch, the market may still be underestimating just how large Lilly's next obesity chapter could be.
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