Chipotle Misses Q3 Estimates: 'Traffic Reversal Presents Confounding Problem'

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) continued to slide after the company Wednesday reported its third-quarter results.

Here are some key analyst takeaways:

• KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Eric Gonzalez maintained an Overweight rating, while cutting the price target from $52 to $45.
• BTIG analyst Peter Saleh reiterated a Buy rating, while slashing the price target from $57 to $45.
• TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles reaffirmed a Buy rating, while reducing the price target from $45 to $40.
• Stephens analyst Jim Salera maintained an Equal-weight rating and price target of $48.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

KeyBanc Capital Markets: Chipotle generated 0.3% same store sales growth in the third quarter. It fell short of consensus of around 0.6%, Gonzalez said in a note. "SSS trends took another step down in October—likely to the low MSD negative range," he wrote.

Management suggested that same store sales growth could remain negative into the first quarter of 2026, the analyst stated. He added that the company's margin outlook came in below the consensus.

BTIG: While Chipotle's traffic was expected to have slowed, the magnitude of the decline came as a surprise, Saleh said. Traffic declined by 0.8%.

The "sharp reversal in traffic presents a confounding problem”, the analyst stated. And it’s not due to affordability. Sales trends decelerated from July into August by about 200-300 bps, and then again into September and October.

TD Cowen: Chipotle witnessed stronger-than-expected same store sales headwinds in September and October from "weakening Gen Z financial health," Charles said. He added that this trend resulted in guidance for the fourth quarter suggesting a low-single-digit to mid-single-digit decline in same store sales.

"Further, we believe the soft underlying performance provided management the opportunity to talk down 2026 same store sales that also did not transpire, therefore putting shares in the penalty box until 4Q results are released in February," the analyst wrote.

Stephens: While Chipotle Mexican Grill Restaurant's same store sales came in below expectations, level margins of 24.5% missed consensus of 25.6%, Salera said. The company reported adjusted earnings of 29 cents per share, he added.

Management lowered their fiscal 2025 guidance for same-store sales guidance to a low-single-digit decline, from their earlier projection of growth remaining flat, the analyst stated. "This marks the third consecutive quarter the company has lowered comp guidance," he further wrote.

CMG Price Action: Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill had declined by 18.23% to $32.51 at the time of publication on Thursday.

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