Blackstone's Performance Could Accelerate In Second Half: Analysts Examine Q1 Results, Outlook

Zinger Key Points
  • Blackstone reports upbeat first-quarter earnings on higher real-estate fee related performance fees, one analyst saus.
  • The company’s management fee growth could meaningfully accelerate in the back half of the year, another analyst notes.

Blackstone Inc BX Thursday reported upbeat earnings for its first quarter.

The results came amid an exciting earnings season. Here are some key analyst takeaways from the release.

Goldman Sachs On Blackstone

Analyst Alexander Blostein reiterated a Neutral rating while cutting the price target to $123.

Following Blackstone's first-quarter results, the earnings estimates for 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been lowered from $4.56 per share to $4.60 per share, from $5.76 per share to $5.92 per share, and from $6.69 per share to $6.73 per share, respectively, "to reflect marginally lower FRE (fee-related earnings) estimates and a further push-out in PRE re-acceleration — mid-single digits downside vs. consensus," Blostein said in a note.

"We expect BX's near-term management fee growth to remain range-bound, but a path toward meaningful acceleration remains intact into 2H24 (+13% YoY) and into 2025 (+15% YoY)," the analyst stated.  "In terms of activity, management highlighted a more compelling case for capital deployment, but the path to realizations remains less certain," he added.

BofA Securities On Blackstone

Analyst Craig Siegenthaler maintained a Buy rating while reducing the price target from $141 to $132.

Blackstone's fundamentals bottomed in 2023 and are accelerating this year, Siegenthaler said.

"Our conviction in fundraising is supported by the TAM math in the retail and insurance channels in addition to new partnership formations with banks," the analyst wrote. "While this broad improvement is largely captured in sell-side estimates in 2024, we expect upside in 2025-26," he added.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.


JPMorgan On Blackstone

Analyst Kenneth Worthington reaffirmed a Neutral rating while lowering the price target from $105 to $100.

Blackstone's first-quarter earnings topped expectations on better real estate fee-related performance fees, Worthington said. He added that the company generated sequential growth in FRE for the first time since the second quarter of 2023.

"We remain Neutral on BX with slower fundraising this quarter and ongoing uncertainty around Real Estate performance tempering excitement around the Credit & Insurance segment and the growth opportunity in Infrastructure," the analyst further wrote.

HSBC Research On Blackstone

Analyst Vikram Gandhi reaffirmed a Hold rating and price target of $122.

Blackstone reported broadly in-line AUM figures, Gandhi said. "AUM came in at USD1,061.3bn (+0.4% vs consensus), FEAUM at USD781.4bn (-0.4% vs consensus) and average FEAUM of USD772.0bn (0.3% miss)," he wrote.

"Net DE came in only 1.7% ahead of consensus though, while FRE margin at 57.9% was 1ppts ahead of the Street," the analyst stated.

BX Price Action: Shares of Blackstone had declined by 1.04% to $119.05 at the time of publication on Friday.

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Posted In: Analyst ColorEarnings MissesPrice TargetReiterationAnalyst RatingsAlexander BlosteinBofA SecuritiesCraig SiegenthalerExpert IdeasGoldman SachsHSBC ResearchJPMorganKenneth WorthingtonStories That MatterVikram Gandhi
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