Ahead Of Tesla's Q2 Results, Analyst Says To Brace For Short-Term Margin Disappointment But 'Also A Good Recovery Beyond'

Tesla, Inc. TSLA is scheduled to release its second-quarter results after the market closes on Wednesday. Ahead of the results, New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu commented on the company’s margins, which have become a concern due to the discounts the company offered during the quarter.

Short-Term Disappointment? While Tesla has lowered prices materially since the end of last summer, the aggressive pricing action has kept the company on track to grow annual deliveries by 50%, said Ferragu in a series of tweets on Friday. This, however, drove margins down from a peak of 30% to 18.34% in the first quarter, he noted.

“Brace for a – short-term, disappointment, with a further slide in 2Q23… But also a good recovery beyond,” Ferragu said.

Further margin pressure happened in the second quarter, the analyst pointed out, noting that, in the first quarter, a number of cars were delivered at “better prices.” The average selling price will drop by a further $3,000 in the second quarter, he said, adding that he expects gross margins to slide a further 270 basis points to 15.6%.

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Light At End Of Tunnel? Ferragu said he sees margins bottoming in the second quarter and recovering afterwards. Even if there are further price cuts, underlying costs are improving fast with the ramp-up of Giga Berlin and Giga Austin, he said.

In the long run, the analyst said he sees auto gross margins, excluding full-self driving, to be at 25%. “Given Tesla’s cost and product advantage, and knowing that market dynamics will eventually set prices at levels at which some competitors survive, we see it as a necessity,” he said.

In the next few years, the analyst said he also sees Tesla expanding gross margins by at least 10 points, “while still growing very fast.” “This makes a nice combination,” he said.

Tesla closed Friday’s session 1.25% higher at $281.38, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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