Market Overview

Susquehanna Bullish On Canada Goose: 'We Foresee A Long Runway For Margin Expansion'

Susquehanna Bullish On Canada Goose:  'We Foresee A Long Runway For Margin Expansion'

Canada Goose Holdings Inc (NYSE: GOOS) is "the best-in-class luxury cold weather brand," according to Susquehanna. 

The Analyst

Analyst Sam Poser initiated coverage of Canada Goose with a Positive rating and $98 price target.

The Thesis

"Canada Goose continues to position itself as ‘THE’ luxury winter performance outdoor apparel brand by making great product, controlling distribution and staying true to its Canadian heritage," Poser said in the initiation note. (See his track record here.) 

Even after beating the second-quarter earnings consensus estimate by 77 percent and posting 37-percent earnings growth year-over-year, the analyst said Canada Goose's positive outlook will prove conservative.

“Given international expansion, favorable changes in distribution mix (increasing penetration of direct sales vs. wholesale), we expect a three-year revenue and net income CAGRs, respectively, of at least 30 percent and 40 percent.” 

Canada Goose is positioned to drive 30-percent-plus revenue CAGR through at least fiscal 2021 for the following reasons, Poser said: 

  • "Controlled, yet aggressive" direct-to-consumer growth.
  • Controlled international expansion.
  • Strict distribution and allocation control. 
  • Commitment to the brand’s ethos.
  • Creative, targeted marketing.

The direct-to-consumer segment should grow to almost 70 percent of total sales by 2021, the analyst said — a promising sign considering that, in fiscal 2018, Canada Goose's DTC gross margin was 74.4 percent versus a wholesale gross margin of 46.9 percent.

“As the company continues to shift the business toward DTC, as well as improve and enhance its manufacturing capabilities, we foresee a long runway for margin expansion." 

The Price Action

Canada Goose shares were down nearly 4 percent at $56.16 at the time of publication Monday. 

Related Links:

Baird Says Canada Goose Sell-Off Is Unwarranted, Upgrades To Outperform

Cramer Likes Retail Stocks, Says Canada Goose Is The 'Best Of The Bunch'

Latest Ratings for GOOS

Nov 2019Initiates Coverage OnOverweight
Nov 2019MaintainsOutperform
Nov 2019MaintainsNeutral

View More Analyst Ratings for GOOS
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

Posted-In: Apparel retail Sam Poser SusquehannaAnalyst Color Price Target Initiation Analyst Ratings Best of Benzinga


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