The Lessons We Did NOT Learn From The Crash Of 1987

This week marks the 30th anniversary of the Black Monday market crash of 1987, the single worst day in U.S. stock market history. With the S&P 500 trading at new all-time highs, it’s only natural for traders to draw comparisons between today’s market and the one in 1987.

However, in a new research note Thursday, Canaccord Genuity analyst Brain Reynolds said today’s equity environment is actually nothing like the environment back in 1987. According to Reynolds, institutional investors were making huge bets on a rising stock market back in 19987. Today, most institutional investors are betting on a pull-back.

“Now, large institutional equity investors are again aggressively positioning themselves based on flawed bond market assumptions, and may have to reverse course in the years ahead,” Reynolds said.

In other words, even with today’s market as high as it is, Reynolds sees major risk to the upside. With so much money positioned for a bear market in stocks and/or bonds, Reynolds sees compelling reasons the stock and bond markets may not be as weak as many are assuming.

Related Link: Wall Street's 'Black Monday' Turns 30: What Happened On October 19, 1987?

“It does not really matter whether the next Fed chair is John Taylor or Taylor Swift: our public pensions are slated to bring in more tax money and allocate it to credit no matter how the worries … play out,” Reynolds said.

For traders looking to capitalize on the downward bias in the market right now, Reynolds said a short-term downturn in the stock market is entirely possible. Canaccord recommends buying the dip, however, and Reynolds said he sees “significant upside potential” for stocks in the years ahead.

If he is correct, traders and long-term investors both should be buying any dips in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA heading into the close of 2017.