Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc Announces Q3, Investor Event & Interim Dividend Declaration

This announcement contains inside information

COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS

Trading update for the third quarter ended 30 September 2022 & interim dividend declaration

UXBRIDGE, UK / ACCESSWIRE / November 2, 2022 / Strong third quarter, upgrading FY22 guidance, declaring record dividend & raising mid-term objectives

Damian Gammell, Chief Executive Officer, said:

Note: All footnotes included after the 'About CCEP' section; *refers to headline pricing

Q3 HIGHLIGHTS[2],[3]

Q3 Reported revenue +20.0%; Fx-neutral revenue +18.0%

Dividend

  • Declaring second half interim dividend per share of €1.12 (to be paid December)
  • Resulting in record full year dividend per share of €1.68 (+20.0% vs 2021 & +35.5% vs 2019), maintaining annualised total dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%[8]. Equating to a total absolute dividend of €767m

Other

FY22 GUIDANCE[2],[3]

The outlook for FY22 reflects current market conditions. Unless otherwise stated, guidance is provided on a pro forma comparable & FX-neutral basis. FX is expected to increase FX-neutral guidance by approximately 150 basis points for the full year.

Revenue: pro forma comparable growth of 15-16% (previously 11-13%)

  • Weighted towards volume over price/mix reflecting recovery of the AFH channel

Cost of sales per unit case: pro forma comparable growth of ~8.5% (previously ~7.5%)

  • Stronger volume recovery supporting favourable overhead absorption
  • Commodity inflation expected to be up low twenties (previously high teens)
  • FY22 hedge coverage >95%

Operating profit: pro forma comparable growth of 11-12% (previously 9-11%)

  • Remain on track to deliver on previously announced efficiency savings & API combination benefits & continued focus on optimising discretionary spend

Comparable effective tax rate: ~22% (previously 22-23%)

Diluted EPS: pro forma comparable growth of 14-15% based on actual FX rates

Free cash flow: at least €1.8bn (previously at least €1.6bn) reflecting strong year to date performance & working capital initiatives

FY23 OUTLOOK[2]

Top line

  • Market remaining resilient, mindful of uncertain outlook
  • Annualisation of FY22 second underlying pricing increases
  • NARTD category (retail sales value) expected to grow high single digit, driven by price & mix

Bottom line

  • Cost of sales
    • Commodities: expected to be up mid-teens (previously high single digit); ~60% hedge coverage
    • Concentrate: directly linked to revenue per unit case through the incidence pricing model
    • Low overall FX transactional exposure (<10%)
  • Continued delivery of efficiency programmes

UPDATED MID-TERM OBJECTIVES & INVESTOR EVENT HIGHLIGHTS[2]

Updated mid-term objectives

Revenue: growth of ~4%[5] (raised, previously low single digit)

Comparable operating profit: growth of ~7%[5] (raised, previously mid single digit)

Free cash flow: ~€1.7bn (raised, previously at least €1.25bn)

Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA: 2.5X - 3.0X (maintained) & focused on reaching top end of target leverage range by end of FY23

ROIC: ~+50bps p.a. (raised, previously ~+40bps p.a.)

Capex: ~4-5% of revenue[9] (updated, previously ~5% of revenue[9])

Dividend payout ratio: ~50%[8] (maintained)

Other highlights

  • NARTD market is large & growing: estimated at €130bn in 2022; CAGR 2023-27 estimated at around ~3-4%[17]
  • Announcing new €350-400m efficiency programme to be delivered by the end of FY28 (cash cost to deliver included within FCF guidance)
  • Sustainability: updating our commitments & targets to include API markets

For more details, the investor event presentation will be made available at www.cocacolaep.com from 12:30 GMT, 13:30 CET & 8:30 a.m. EDT. For details of the webcast see page 6.

The person responsible for arranging for the release of this announcement on behalf of the Company is Clare Wardle, Company Secretary.

Third-Quarter & Year-To-Date Revenue Performance by Geography[2]

All values are unaudited and all references to volumes are on a comparable basis

API

France

Germany

Great Britain

Iberia

Northern Europe

  • Q3 volume growth reflects continued trading momentum in the AFH channel. Continued strong demand in the Home channel supported overall volume growth ahead of 2019.
  • Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Fanta & Monster all outperformed, with volume ahead of 2019.
  • Revenue/UC[14] growth driven by underlying price, alongside positive pack & channel mix from the continued recovery of the AFH channel e.g. small glass volume +16.5% in Q3.

Third-Quarter & Year-To-Date Volume Performance by Category[2],[3],[6]

All values are unaudited and all references to volumes are on a comparable basis

Coca-Cola®

  • Q3 Original Taste +11.0%; Lights +5.5% driven by solid trading in both channels, supported by the continued recovery of the AFH channel & on-going solid performance of the reformulated & rebranded Coca-Cola Zero Sugar (+11.0%; +25.0% vs 2019)
  • Coca-Cola Zero Sugar gained value share[4] of Total Cola +60bps

Flavours, Mixers & Energy

  • Q3 Fanta +20.0% driven by solid trading in both channels, supported by the continued recovery of the AFH channel
  • Q3 Energy +25.5% vs 2021 & +55.5% vs 2019 led by Monster; gaining +140bps of value share[4].
  • Solid growth supported by exciting innovation & solid in-market execution

Hydration

  • Q3 Water +24.5% reflecting the continued recovery of the AFH channel & increased mobility
  • Q3 Water in decline vs 2019 (-20.0%), partially offset by Sports (+17.5%) following a post pandemic resurgence

RTD Tea, RTD Coffee, Juices & Other[15]

  • Q3 Juice drinks in decline -2.5% vs 2019 driven by SKU rationalisation in Indonesia. Continued growth in Europe led by Capri-Sun (+18.0% vs 2021 & +33.5% vs 2019)
  • Q3 RTD Tea in growth vs 2019, led by Fuze Tea (+41.0%[16]) & continuing to grow value share in Europe[4],[16]
  • Q3 Alcohol delivered strong growth in Australia (+9.5% vs 2021 & +8.5% vs 2019) driven mainly by RTD Alcohol

Investor Event Webcast

  • 2 November 2022 at 12:30 GMT, 13:30 CET & 8:30 a.m. EDT; accessible via www.cocacolaep.com
  • Broadcast, replay & transcript will be available at www.cocacolaep.com as soon as possible

Dividend

Financial Calendar

Contacts

About CCEP

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is one of the world's leading consumer goods companies. We make, move and sell some of the world's most loved brands - serving 600 million consumers and helping 1.75 million customers across 29 countries grow.

We combine the strength and scale of a large, multi-national business with an expert, local knowledge of the customers we serve and communities we support.

The Company is currently listed on Euronext Amsterdam, the NASDAQ Global Select Market, London Stock Exchange and on the Spanish Stock Exchanges, trading under the symbol CCEP.

For more information about CCEP, please visit www.cocacolaep.com & follow CCEP on Twitter at @CocaColaEP.

___________________

1. A unit case equals approximately 5.678 litres or 24 8-ounce servings

2. Refer to 'Note Regarding the Presentation of Pro forma financial information and Alternative Performance Measures' for further details and to 'Supplementary Financial Information' for a reconciliation of reported to comparable and reported to pro forma comparable results; Change percentages against prior year equivalent period unless stated otherwise

4. Combined NARTD (non-alcoholic ready to drink) NielsenIQ Global Track YTD data for BE, DE, ES, FR, NL, NO, PT & SE to 28.Aug.22; GB to 27.Aug.22; NZ to 11.Sep.22; IND to 15.Aug.22; NARTD IRI data for AUS to 28.Aug.22. Online Data is for available markets YTD GB to 13.Aug.22 (Retailer data) + 27.Aug.22 (NielsenIQ), ES, FR, NL & SE to 28.Aug.22 (NielsenIQ), AUS to 28.Aug.22 (Retailer Data)

5. Comparable & Fx-neutral

6. No selling day shift in Q3; YTD adjusted for 1 less selling day in Q1; YTD pro forma volume +12.0%

7. Management's best estimate

8. Dividends subject to Board approval

9. Excluding payments of principal on lease obligations

10. Includes Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Islands, Indonesia & Papua New Guinea

11. Includes France & Monaco

12. Includes Spain, Portugal & Andorra

13. Includes Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden & Iceland

14. Revenue per unit case

15. RTD refers to Ready to Drink; Other includes Alcohol & Coffee

16. Europe only

17. CCEP internal estimates based on Global Data 2023-2027

Forward-Looking Statements

1. those set forth in the "Risk Factors" section of CCEP's 2021 Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC on 15 March 2022 and as updated and supplemented with the additional information set forth in the "Principal Risks and Risk Factors" section of the H1 2022 Half-year Report filed with the SEC on 4 August 2022;

2. risks and uncertainties relating to the Acquisition, including the risk that the businesses will not be integrated successfully or such integration may be more difficult, time consuming or costly than expected, which could result in additional demands on CCEP's resources, systems, procedures and controls, disruption of its ongoing business and diversion of management's attention from other business concerns;

3. the extent to which COVID-19 will continue to affect CCEP and the results of its operations, financial condition and cash flows will depend on future developments that are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the scope and duration of the pandemic and actions taken by governmental authorities and other third parties in response to the pandemic;

4. risks and uncertainties relating to the global supply chain, including impact from war in Ukraine, such as the risk that the business will not be able to guarantee sufficient supply of raw materials, supplies, finished goods, natural gas and oil and increased state-sponsored cyber risks;

5. risks and uncertainties relating to the global economy and/or a potential recession in one or more countries, including risks from elevated inflation, price increases, price elasticity, disposable income of consumers and employees, pressure on and from suppliers, increased fraud, and the perception or manifestation of a global economic downturn; and

Note Regarding the Presentation of Pro forma financial information and Alternative Performance Measures

Pro forma financial information

The Pro forma financial information presented in this document reflects the inclusion of API revenue as if the acquisition had occurred at 1 January 2021 and prepared on a basis consistent with CCEP accounting policies.

Alternative Performance Measures

For purposes of this document, the following terms are defined:

''As reported'' are results extracted from our consolidated financial statements.

''Pro forma'' includes the results of CCEP and API as if the Acquisition had occurred at the beginning of 2021. In this document, the Pro forma financial information adjustments reflect the inclusion of API revenue as if the acquisition had occurred at the beginning of 2021 and prepared on a basis consistent with CCEP accounting policies.

"Comparable'' is defined as results excluding items impacting comparability, which include restructuring charges, acquisition and integration related costs, inventory fair value step up related to acquisition accounting, the impact of the closure of the GB defined benefit pension scheme, net impact related to European flooding and net tax items relating to rate and law changes. Comparable volume is also adjusted for selling days.

''Pro forma Comparable'' is defined as the pro forma results excluding items impacting comparability, as described above.

''Fx-neutral'' or "FXN" is defined as period results excluding the impact of foreign exchange rate changes. Foreign exchange impact is calculated by recasting current year results at prior year exchange rates.

''Capex'' or "Capital expenditures'' is defined as purchases of property, plant and equipment and capitalised software, plus payments of principal on lease obligations, less proceeds from disposals of property, plant and equipment. Capex is used as a measure to ensure that cash spending on capital investment is in line with the Group's overall strategy for the use of cash.

''Dividend payout ratio'' is defined as dividends as a proportion of comparable profit after tax.

Additionally, within this document, we provide certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial Information, which management uses for planning and measuring performance. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP measures to reported measures without unreasonable efforts because it is not possible to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual impact or exact timing of items that may impact comparability throughout year.

Unless otherwise stated, percent amounts are rounded to the nearest 0.5%.

Supplemental Financial Information - Revenue - Reported to Pro Forma Comparable

All pro forma measures presented below relate only to the nine months ended 1 October 2021.

Revenue

[1] The Pro forma financial information for 2021 reflects the inclusion of API revenue as if the acquisition had occurred at 1 January 2021 and prepared on a basis consistent with CCEP accounting policies.

Volume

[1] Pro forma API volume for the nine months ended 1 Oct 2021 is 460 million unit cases. Including the impact of the Q1 selling day shift (3 million unit cases), pro forma comparable API volume is 457 million unit cases.

SOURCE: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc



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