Yen Rises Following S&P's Downgrade

downgrade of the U.S. sovereign debt by S&P
the Bank of Japan
, bank lending fell 0.5% in July year-over-year, slightly down from -0.6% recorded in June. However, the July figure represents the 20th consecutive month of falling loans. At the same time, Japan's current account surplus suffered a big fall on an annual basis in July. According to
the Ministry of Finance
, Japan's current account surplus fell 50.2% in July, compared to a year earlier. In June, the fall was even steeper as the nation's surplus was 51.7% lower than June 2010. However, most analysts had predicted Japan's current account surplus to fall by only 39%. Some encouragement to the country's economic recovery was provided by
the Economy Watchers Current Index
ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that traders will continue to seek shelter in the Japanese yen, and that the Bank of Japan will be unable to prevent the yen from rising higher, might want to consider the following trades:

  • CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (NYSE: FXY) is a long play on the yen. FXY may rise if the yen appreciates.
  • ProShares Ultra Yen ETF (NYSE: YCL) is another long play on the yen. However, YCL should rise more than FXY if the yen appreciates.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that the Bank of Japan will be able to weaken the yen in order to help the country's exporters may consider an alternate positions:

  • ETFS Short Japanese Yen Long US Dollar ETC (Sterling) ETF (SJPP) is a short play on the yen. SJPP may rise if the yen depreciates.
  • ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSE: YCS) is another short play on the yen. However, YCS should rise more than SJPP if the yen depreciates.
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