Eli Lilly Stock Surges As Analyst Sees More Room To Run

Eli Lilly And Company (NYSE:LLY) shares are trading higher Monday after Leerink Partners upgraded the stock to an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $1,104.

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What To Know: According to an Investing.com report, Leerink cited "multiple waves of obesity treatment adoption drivers" as the key reason for the upgrade. The firm also raised its 2026 through 2030 earnings estimates by 4% to 9% annually and boosted its long-term revenue and profit growth outlook, projecting a 15% revenue CAGR and 20% EPS CAGR through 2030.

Leerink analysts said Medicare and Medicaid access by early 2027, alongside new drug launches, should reinforce Lilly's leadership in the fast-growing obesity market. They added that lower direct-to-consumer pricing should support affordability and offset margin pressure, noting the step-down in Medicare pricing to $245 per month is less severe than expected — just 20% to 35% below current Mounjaro pricing.

Lilly estimates its agreement with the U.S. government could add roughly 40 million new Medicare patients eligible for obesity treatment, compared with about 8.5 million currently. Leerink expects the company's next generation of therapies — orforglipron in 2027, retatrutide and amylin-based eloralintide — to expand its dominance across patient categories.

Eloralintide, which showed 16.4% weight loss after 48 weeks in Phase 2 trials, is expected to launch in 2028 with risk-adjusted sales of $10.7 billion. Leerink called the treatment "a mega-blockbuster" and said Medicare coverage starting in January 2027 "should be a powerful U.S. market driver."

Leerink's revised 2026 revenue forecast now stands at $78.1 billion, up from $75.7 billion previously, with 2030 revenue projected at $125 billion.

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LLY Price Action: At the time of writing, Eli Lilly shares are trading 4.96% higher at $969.80, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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