'We Know For A Fact It's Not AI,' Experts Explain Slowdown In White Collar Hiring

For the past two years, hiring in professional and business services roles— more commonly referred to as "white collar" jobs— has been slow. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that in May, hiring in the sector declined by 0.1%.   

Economists told CNBC that the shrinkage was not because of AI, like many people assume, but because of structural issues in the economy. 

"We know for a fact that it's not AI," Roosevelt Institute director Alí Bustamante said. 

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Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, agrees. "This is more of an economic story and less of an AI disruption story, at least so far," told CNBC. 

Experts point to the fact that the decline in job creation has been an issue for several years, and began in a time when AI technology wasn't all that effective, as the primary reason that AI isn't behind the slowdown, according to CNBC. Additionally, Stahle told CNBC that the technology is still in its early stages and can't yet execute certain tasks without human intervention.

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A 2024 report by Indeed found that AI is more likely to support white collar workers than to replace them. Of the 2,800 skills evaluated in the report, only 28.5% were deemed fully replaceable by generative AI, and only if the technology improved quite a bit. Meanwhile, 68.7% of the work skills were deemed "very unlikely" or "unlikely" to be replaced by generative AI, as they require too much of a human touch.

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"We might get to a point where [AI replaces human workers], but right now, that's not necessarily looking like it's a big factor," Stahle told CNBC. 

In fact, the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report 2025 forecasts that AI will create 170 million new jobs by 2030. That number amounts to 14% of total current employment, and would go a long way in offsetting the 92 million jobs that could be displaced by AI. 

Stahle urges white collar workers whose skills may overlap with AI and who could potentially be displaced by it to learn how to use the technology to stay ahead. "Certainly, jobs are going to transform," he told CNBC. "I'm not going to downplay the potential impacts of AI."

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