After more than 30 years as a meteorologist, John Morales says he can’t promise Florida the same level of confidence this year when it comes to forecasting dangerous storms, including hurricanes. And the reason, he says, isn’t the weather itself — it’s the state of the country’s weather infrastructure.
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Florida Offices Are Short-Staffed, Data Is Lacking, And Accuracy Is Suffering
“I am here to tell you that I am not sure I can do that this year, Morales said during a June 3 WTVJ-TV broadcast, reflecting on his calm reassurance during Hurricane Dorian in 2019, which devastated the northwest Bahamas as a Category 5 storm while many Floridians feared a direct hit.
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Why is he no longer confident in his forecasting? “Because of the cuts, the gutting, the sledgehammer attack on science in general,” he said, “I could talk about that for a long, long time and how that is affecting the U.S. Leadership in science over many years and how we’re losing that leadership.”
Morales is among many meteorologists and scientists raising alarms about the recent wave of budget cuts and layoffs hitting the National Weather Service and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Central and South Florida NWS offices are currently operating with 20% to 40% fewer staff than needed, according to Morales.
He also mentioned that because of some of these cuts, the NOAA “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft will not be able to fly this year. As Morales put it, that means, “We may be flying blind and not exactly know how strong a hurricane is before it reaches the coastline.”
The Trump administration cut nearly 600 NWS positions earlier this year. Some field offices were no longer staffed around the clock. Weather balloon launches dropped by 20%, and critical hurricane reconnaissance flights were at risk of being canceled. Those flights collect key data that help experts understand storm strength and direction.
“This could result in another Otis,” Morales warned, referring to Hurricane Otis in 2023, which was forecast as a tropical storm just 24 hours before slamming into Acapulco, Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane.
Forecast Models Are Getting Worse, Not Better
The staffing and data shortages have already apparently started to affect the accuracy of forecast models. “The quality of the forecast is becoming degraded,” Morales said.
The situation drew national attention earlier this year when news broke that the Trump administration was planning to cancel the lease for NOAA’s main forecasting center in Maryland, a facility housing supercomputers and data hubs essential for weather prediction.
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Meteorologist Brad Panovich with WCNC-TV in Charlotte, North Carolina, warned that this kind of move could have wide-reaching consequences. “Every single dollar of our economy is impacted by the weather,” he posted on X at the time. “This will literally bankrupt the U.S.”
University of Pennsylvania climatologist Michael Mann called the dismantling of NOAA “catastrophic,” telling Newsweek that “Without NOAA, we are flying blind into a climate abyss.”
Rehiring Starts, But The Damage Is Already Done
Following public backlash and several deadly storms, the NWS recently received authorization to rehire 126 employees, including forecasters and radar technicians. But former NOAA undersecretary Mary Glackin told NPR that it might be too little, too late. “This is kind of putting a band-aid on a rather large wound,” she said. “We’re in the middle of a severe weather season. It’s not a good time to be understaffed.”
According to Glackin, the rehires won’t be in place until at least September, and the NWS still remains short by several hundred positions. The agency is trying to stabilize operations, but many meteorologists worry the country’s forecasting system may already be compromised.
“I just want you to know that what you need to do is call your representatives and make sure that these cuts are stopped,” Morales urged.
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