Odds of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran rose on prediction markets Monday amid renewed optimism from Tehran.

Will Iran And The US Finally Agree?

The chances of the two countries reaching an agreement this year climbed to 57% on Polymarket before easing to 53%. The odds were only 30% a week ago.

Over $23,000 has been wagered on the outcome. The market will resolve to “Yes” if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research or weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the U.S. and Iran before Dec. 31.

Notably, the odds of a U.S. military strike on Iran fell sharply across various time horizons.

Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy "Yes" and "No" shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC). The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.

The Geopolitical Implications Of US-Iran Talks

The jump in odds comes after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed optimism about securing a nuclear deal, following what he described as “fruitful” talks with the U.S. through friendly countries.

Araghchi said a quick, achievable deal to prevent nuclear weapons is possible, but only if the U.S. lifts sanctions and recognizes Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear enrichment.

President Donald Trump refused to divulge much on the matter. “We have talks going on with Iran. We’ll see how it all works out,” Trump told reporters at White House.

The U.S. entered the Iran-Israel armed conflict last year by bombing three crucial Iranian nuclear sites, which Trump termed a “spectacular military success.” 

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