Donald Trump’s campaign is showing signs of cracking, with poll results published on Sunday showing a shrinking lead against President Joe Biden. In another setback, the former president has also faced his first primary loss against Nikki Haley in Washington D.C.
Tight Race: Trump led Biden by a very narrow margin of two percentage points (47% to 45%) in a hypothetical matchup, a Wall Street Journal survey found. The results were based on responses from 1,500 registered voters contacted between Feb. 21 and Feb. 28, with the margin of error at +/- 2.5 percentage points. In December, the Journal’s survey found that Trump held a four-point lead.
Biden’s better faring relative to December reflected an improvement in voters’ assessment of the economy. The percentage of voters who approved of the president’s handling of inflation rose seven points from December to 37% and those approving his handling of the economy rose four points to 40%.
Annual consumer price inflation has come back notably from the 9%+ level seen in the summer of 2022 to 3.1% in January. The annual rate of CPI, at 3.9% in January, still remains well above the central bank’s 2% target, leaving the Federal Reserve cautious about embarking on rate cuts.
The iShares TIPS Bond ETF TIP, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the investment results of an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, fell 0.21% in premarket trading on Monday to $106.90, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The U.S. economic growth has held up despite interest rates remaining at a 22-year high but fiscal indiscipline continues to be a cause of worry.
The WSJ survey showed that despite improving approval for Biden’s handlining of the economy, only about 31% said the economy has gotten better over the past two years. The percentage, however, has improved by 10 points from December. Forty-three percent said their personal finances are headed in the right direction, up nine points from the end of last year.
Inflation worries continue to haunt voters despite the improvement in voter opinion about Biden’s handling of pricing pressure. About two-thirds said inflation is headed in the wrong direction and three-quarters said price increases outweighed household income gains.
The survey results, the report said, suggest that an improving economy is giving Biden a modest push. However, another major issue – immigration now seems to preoccupy the minds of voters.
“Those findings, while suggesting improvement for the president, still show that voters hold a dim view of his stewardship of the economy. Moreover, his re-election prospects are weighed down by concerns about his age and sharply negative views of his leadership overall, including his handling of immigration and the war between Israel and Hamas,” the report said.
The Wild Cards: When third-party candidates and independents were added to the fray, Trump’s fortunes swelled. The former president took away 40% support, Biden 35% and Robert Kennedy Jr. 9%, while the remaining received 2% or fewer votes.
Kennedy took more voters from Trump than Biden, the WSJ poll found. The independent candidate’s supporters favor Trump over Biden by a 47% to 30% margin.
If Trump were convicted for any of the federal criminal charges, his two-point lead would turn to a four-point deficit in a hypothetical matchup with Biden.
“Among other things, the diminished economic anxiety could make it easier for Biden to win economy-focused voters and to turn voter attention to other issues,” the report said.
Michael Bocian, a Democratic pollster who conducted the Journal survey, along with Republican Tony Fabrizio, said, “So, they're turning to other issues, which is net good for Biden at the end of the day. But then he has to go win those issues,” the report said.
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