Former president Donald Trump leads his Democratic rival Joe Biden in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, although his lead has contracted, a new poll found.
Trump’s Slight Edge: Forty-five percent of Pennsylvania voters have thrown their weight behind Trump in a hypothetical two-way match, while 43% picked Biden, according to the results of a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
The poll, conducted on Feb. 14-16, surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Pennsylvania and it has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The party-wise breakup of the respondents was as follows:
- Democrats: 40.2%
- Republicans: 41.3%
- Independents: 18.4%
Trump’s support has reduced by three points from 48% in the January poll. while Biden’s support increased by two points from 41%.
On a positive note for the Democrats, independent voters from the state picked Biden over Trump by a 41%-35% margin Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, “There is also a gender divide: men break for Trump over Biden 50% to 41% while women break slightly for Biden over Trump, 44% to 42%.”
When independent candidates, including Robert Kennedy Jr, Cornel West and Jill Stein were included on the ballot, the support for Trump and Biden fell by three and six points, respectively, to 42% and 37%. Kennedy took away 8% support, West 2% and Stein 1%, while 12% said they were undecided.
The Pushbacks: When Pennsylvania voters were probed whether Biden’s age was a concern, 64% of the respondents said the president’s age raises serious doubts about voting for him in the 2024 general election.
For separate questions on whether Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious concerns about voting for him, 57% replied in the affirmative.
“Independent voters are more concerned about Trump's indictments than Biden's age: 61% of independents say Trump's indictments raise serious concerns while 53% of independents find Biden's age to raise serious concerns about voting for the president in 2024,” Kimball noted.
Given that 12% of the respondents said they were undecided when presented with a Biden Vs. Trump matchup, the positioning is still fluid and the tables could turn at any time. Also, independent voters, who sided more with Biden than Trump consider the latter’s indictments as an impediment. These could augur well for Biden.
For Pennsylvania voters, the top issue seems to be the economy, with 40% of the respondents mentioning it. Healthcare and immigration were mentioned by 11% each, threats to Democracy and crime were mentioned by 10% and 8%, respectively, and education and house affordability by 6% each.
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