GOL Expects Q4 Capacity To Improve By 30% Sequentially

  • GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA GOL provided an Investor Update on its expectations for 3Q21. The company said it exceeded its financial forecasts during the quarter, despite the exchange rate devaluation. 
  • Q3 Outlook: GOL expects a loss per share of ~R$(2.58) and a Loss Per American Depositary Share (EPADS) of $(0.99).
  • The company expects an EBITDA margin of 22% - 24%, a decrease from 29% for the quarter ended in September 2020.
  • It expects passenger unit revenue (PRASK) to be ~5% higher year-over-year and unit revenue (RASK) to be 5% higher. The Load Factor for the quarter was 81.5%.
  • Daily sales ended the quarter at around R$28 million, a 48% increase over the end of 2Q21. With an 82% load factor in the quarter, GOL continues to match supply with demand effectively.
  • Non-fuel unit costs (CASK ex-fuel) are expected to decrease ~11% Y/Y, primarily due to 82% higher ASKs. 
  • Fuel unit costs (CASK fuel) are expected to increase by ~45% Y/Y, mainly due to a 49% increase in the average fuel price.
  • As measured by the Net Debt/LTM EBITDA ratio, GOL's financial leverage was approximately 10x at the end of September 2021. 
  • Liquidity at the end of September 2021 was ~R$1.8 billion, comprised of R$1.1 billion in cash and investments and R$0.7 billion in receivables.
  • GOL plans to increase its 4Q21 capacity by ~30% over 3Q21, anticipating more robust seasonal demand.
  • In 3Q21, Gross Global Scope 1 emissions were ~508.2 thousand metric tons of CO2, an 80% increase vs. 2Q21.
  • Price Action: GOL shares are trading lower by 0.14% at $7.30 on the last check Monday.
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