The recent nomination of E.J. Antoni by President Donald Trump to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could potentially influence tax rates for Americans.
Antoni's Inflation Plan Could Raise Taxes For Millions
Antoni’s nomination has sparked concerns due to his past work critiquing the government’s cost of living measures. Antoni, along with economist Peter St. Onge, proposed an alternative inflation measure, asserting that the U.S. economy had been in recession for seven out of 10 quarters since 2022, stated Mr. Daniel Bunn, President and CEO of the Tax Foundation and Mr. Kyle Pomerleau is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) adjusts tax thresholds annually to account for inflation, a process known as indexing. These adjustments depend on the consumer price index (CPI) published by the BLS. If Antoni’s alternative inflation measure is adopted, it could result in higher taxes for millions of Americans.
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Antoni's approach has faced criticism for being neither transparent nor rigorous. Economist Menzie Chinn reviewed the methodology but could not reproduce the results. If the BLS, under Antoni's direction, portrays inflation as lower than it actually is, tax parameters may be under-adjusted for inflation, effectively leading to higher taxes.
“Workers may not feel the ebb and flow of monthly data reports, but they will notice higher tax bills if Mr. Trump, aided by the BLS, undersells inflation,” stated the experts
Economists Slam Antoni, Warn Of Politicized BLS
Hodge and Pomerleau cautioned that if Antoni, under Trump’s influence, presents artificially low inflation numbers, it could lead to higher taxes for Americans. They emphasized the importance of the BLS maintaining consistent and defensible economic measures.
Antoni’s nomination has faced strong criticism from economists, who question his qualifications and cite a lack of academic citations. This comes after Trump dismissed the previous BLS commissioner following a disappointing jobs report. The firing of the previous BLS head was deemed “dangerous” by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who warned that it risks undermining faith in the government’s jobs numbers.
The new BLS pick has also suggested suspending monthly jobs reports, raising concerns about the transparency and reliability of future economic data. However, Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent suggested suspending monthly data releases was not needed due to the frequent large revisions that appear in subsequent reports.
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