How To trade The US Non-Farm Payrolls With EUR/USD

• The US jobs report is one of the most market-moving events, and wages are in the limelight.
• The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
• The EURUSD moved, on average, 29 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours.

Tradeable figure: Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)

Get Started

Earn 7.2% — No Matter What the Fed Does

Markets expect rate cuts — but your earnings don’t have to suffer. Lock in 7.2% until 2028 from ten individual bonds.

Get Started

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.46 deviation (2.43 ) [BUY Pair]
• Key Resistance Level: 1.1800

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.46 or less (2.43 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 41 pips in the first 15 minutes and 120 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1720 capped the pair in late June. The round 1.1800 level separated ranges during June and May. Key resistance awaits at 1.1850, the swing high of June 14th.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +4.33 deviation (3.49 ) [SELL Pair]
• Key Support Level: 1.1615

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 4.33 or higher (3.49 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 30  pips in the first 15 minutes and 64 pips in the following 4 hours. 

1.1650 is a pivotal line in recent months, a magnet for the pair. Further down, 1.1615 was a place where the pair paused on its way up. 1.1590 was the low point on July 2nd. 

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

The US Non-Farm Payrolls is the "king of forex indicators." In the recent year and a half, the wages data have gained more traction. With near full-employment, salaries are expected to rise but have moved only very slowly. Will they rise this time? 

See Nonfarm Payroll preview: tariffs could overshadow employment data

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 29 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had no surprise. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.