Trump announced a US-China trade deal via the official WhiteHouse.gov site.
One man. One headline.
That's all it took to send us spiraling into one of the fastest bear markets in history… and now, it looks like we're headed for one of the fastest rallies back to all-time highs.
So what does this mean?
What did we learn?
Honestly… maybe nothing.
But if we look closer, here's what matters:
The market didn't care about rate cuts, jobs, or inflation. It only cared about tariffs. Specifically, two players… China and the EU.
Why?
China is the largest importer to the US. The EU? The 2nd biggest buyer of American goods, especially natural resources. American exporters… and many of our largest corporations… are vulnerable without deals in place.
Now that a deal with China is official, and a UK deal already in place…
An EU deal seems almost inevitable. Probably within weeks.
So what now?
Markets are poised to gap way above the 200-day moving average this week.
$SPY and $QQQ are leading the charge… while the $IWM is still lagging. That won't change unless this rally extends through the rest of the month.
Yes, a recession could still be on the table… but let's be real:
If it happens, it'll be shallow. And we could be sitting near all-time highs as it's announced.
Why?
Because markets bottom long before recessions are ever declared.
So yeah… Monday's about to be green.
And "Sell in May and go away"?
Nah… this might be Make a Deal and Go All In.
We'll find out soon enough.
The S&P 500 is down -3.7% YTD, but my portfolio? Up +5.9%.
What's working? Cybersecurity and fintech.
These sectors are least exposed to tariffs… and I've been buying them aggressively during this historic drop.
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