In this episode of the Special Situations Report, Asif Suria from Inside Arbitrage shares his expert insights on:
Transcript of the Special Situations Report on Elliott Management's Activist Campaigns
Asif Suria
Hello and welcome to the Special Situations Report, a podcast by Inside Arbitrage covering the most intriguing event-driven activity over the past week. In this podcast, we'll dive into the latest M&A activity, upcoming spin-offs, significant buybacks, unique insider buying, activist campaigns, and a whole lot more.
Tamanna Suria
My name is the Tamanna Suria and I currently attend the University of California, Los Angeles.
Recent M&A Activity, Potential Mergers & Acquisitions and Activists
Keep that bit in mind, as there's been a new development in the Elliott – Honeywell situation, which we'll discuss later in this podcast.
Asif Suria
Yeah, getting back to Aspen, Elliott holds a $1.5 billion stake in Aspen Technology, representing nearly 10% of their shares outstanding. In response to this opposition, the spread of the deal, which was almost 0%, turned into a negative 3.37% spread, as shareholders are now expecting Emerson to once again increase what they were willing to pay for Aspen.
As we noted earlier, the original price at which they started negotiating with Aspen was $240 per share, and Emerson already held a certain stake in Aspen. And basically through this deal, they tried to buy the rest of their stake.
Tamanna Suria
Let's cover another update in the M&A world. Regarding the acquisition of H&E Equipment Services by United Rentals, they decided to pull and refile their notification under the HSR Act. Typically, when a company files under the HSR Act, there's a 30-day waiting period. And if that waiting period expires, then the deal can proceed.
In the case of cash tender offers the HSR waiting period is just 15 days. Voluntarily pulling and refiling the HSR gives regulators more time to look into the deal as it resets the clock. The new expiration date for the H&E Equipment Services Deal is February 18th. The spread on the deal is 4.33%, but considering the deal is expected to close in Q1 of this year, that works out to an annualized return of 30%.
As we have been saying for a few weeks now, the annualized return right from the beginning pointed to this deal facing regulatory scrutiny and it taking longer than the end of Q1 for the deal to close. While the new expiration date is February 18th, we wouldn't be all that surprised to see the deal get extended once more.
Asif Suria
Getting to new mergers, the largest announcement last week was a $4.4 billion acquisition of SolarWinds by Turn/River Capital in an all cash deal for $18.50 per share. The timing is interesting considering that DOJ recently sued to block the Juniper Networks – HPE deal.
I'm not sure if you recollect, but just a few years ago, SolarWinds was hit by a sophisticated cybersecurity breach. Russian foreign intelligence service hackers injected malicious code into SolarWinds software updates, which were then distributed to customers. 18,000 SolarWind customers were impacted, including government agencies like the Homeland Security Agency and a large number of companies like Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco.
The SEC eventually charged SolarWinds and its Chief Information Security Officer with fraud for failing to disclose known security breaches.
Following the discovery of these breaches in December 2020, the stock went on to lose nearly a third of its value that month.
Tamanna Suria
Despite all that controversy, Turn/River Capital is paying a 28% premium to the 30-day average price to acquire SolarWinds, but even with this premium paid, SolarWinds is still below where it was before the security breach was disclosed. This is very different from CrowdStrike holdings, which saw its stock recover entirely despite the massive disruption their software updates caused last year.
Asif Suria
I remember how disruptive that outage was. If I remember correctly, Delta Airlines had to ground all its flights, and they were thinking about suing CrowdStrike because of all the disruption that outage caused.
Tamanna Suria
We also had a small deal with Globus Medical buying Nevro for $250 million in an all cash deal. This is the second medical devices deal this year after Stryker decided to buy Inari last month. Nevro has devices that help with chronic pain and one of the ways that they do this is by spinal cord stimulation. Both Altus Power and Nevro are supposed to close by the middle of this year and their expected annualized returns are around 6%.
Asif Suria
That spinal cord stimulation part sounded really interesting because I've come across TMS or transcranial magnetic stimulation where they use magnetic pulses to stimulate neurons for patients that might have depression or anxiety. So this is interesting to see.
Tamanna Suria
Last but not least let us wrap up our merger arbitrage section with the saga that never quite seems to end. The deal between US Steel and Nippon Steel. This week, both companies jointly filed their opening brief in their action against former President Biden and his political appointees at the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, better known as CFIUS.
This deal has been quite contentious and unusual from the start, but seeing the company sue Biden's political appointees was especially interesting to see. The CEO of US Steel met with President Trump last Thursday, but it is unclear if that will have any impact on the deal. At one point on Friday, US Steel saw its stock jump up by more than 4%.
Asif Suria
Let's switch gears now and talk about pre-deal situations. We also track pre-deal situations, or as we like to call them, "Deals in the Works". And in that sphere, we saw that this week Hyatt Hotels is in negotiations to acquire Playa Hotels & Resorts. They were already in negotiations, and they extended the timeline of those negotiations to give them a few more days to potentially ink a deal.
Hyatt already owns almost 10% of Playa. And if a deal materializes, it would be surprising because just like Hilton and Marriott, who own less than 10% of their hotels, Hyatt was also moving to a more asset light model where owners pay them for the use of their brand. So they were moving more to a licensing model that is more profitable.
Playa stock jumped a lot in December when news of this potential deal first broke and their period of exclusivity was extended until February 10th. Playa, which operates beachfront resorts in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and Mexico, has a market cap of around $1.6 billion and is about the same size as PebbleBrook Hotel Trust, a company we first wrote about last August and then I discussed on Andrew Walker's podcast, Yet Another Value Podcast in December.
Asif Suria
I'm certainly hopeful that Pebblebrook will bring back their dividends now that they're done with their capital expenses and investing cycle. But that still remains to be seen.
The fact that the stock is worth less than half that original offer price reminds me of Five9 rejecting an offer from Zoom in September 2021 for $14.7 billion, valuing that stock at around $200 per share. Five9's stock closed at $41 last Friday. While that seems like quite a bit of a loss of value for Five9 shareholders who rejected the Zoom deal, the company that takes the cake for rejecting an extremely generous offer is Groupon.
Before Groupon went public, Google had offered $6 billion for the company and they turned it down. The company now has an enterprise value of just $540 million and the stock is down 98% since it started trading as a public company.
Stock Spinoffs
Asif Suria
We should probably rename this show the Elliott Management Tracking Show. Elliott not only referred to GE's successful spin-off, but also called out how United Technologies spun out Carrier and Otis in 2020 before merging into and with Raytheon. As you know, we track the performance of both the spin-off and the parent after the spin-off occurs in our list of completed spin-offs.
Since that spin-off, Otis is up 109%, Raytheon is up more than 180%, and Carrier, their HVAC and AC division, is up a whopping 430%.
Insider Buying
Tamanna Suria
Despite the influx of Bank Insiders purchasing shares this week, it's nowhere near the levels of purchases by Bank Insiders we saw shortly after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
Through a series of transactions from February 9th of 2024 onwards, the Al Rajhi family continued to purchase shares of Children's Place and eventually ended up with a 54% ownership stake in the company. And they managed to this when the stock was extremely volatile and up and down double digits every day.
Tamanna Suria
Fast forward a year and the stock was up double digits once more last week because Mithaq Capital increased their stake by participating in a rights offering by the company that expired on January 31st, 2025. This time around, they purchased a little over 6.7 million shares at a price of $9.75 per share, pushing up their stake to over 12 million shares.
Asif Suria
So why is this super interesting? The highly volatile stock, which had jumped to as high as $38 per share in mid February last year was down to just $4.77 just a few months ago. In mid-january there were nearly 3 million shares short. In the last 10-Q, the company revealed that it has 12.8 million diluted shares.
A little over 9 million shares were issued in the offering at $9.75 per share. So this implies that now Mithaq owns 62% of Children's Place stock and could decide to acquire the rest of the company and take it private.
Tamanna Suria
Mithaq actually only paid about $5 million in cash for their new stock. $60 million was covered through debt that Mithaq had previously extended to Children's Place. While all signs do point to a potential acquisition of Children's Place by Mithaq Capital, we had the exact same hypothesis over a year ago, and it still hasn't played out, so the situation remains pretty uncertain.
We will learn more about the company after it reports Q4 results next month.
Tamanna Suria
The other interesting insider purchase from last week was by director Nik Mittal, who holds both a joint MBA and JD degree from NYU, where he also served as an adjunct professor for a couple years. Mr. Mittal has an impressive background, especially considering that he spent over 12 years at the activist investment firm Jana Partners. He now serves as the managing director of Molecule Ventures, a firm focused on the environmental markets.
All that background aside, we were quite interested to see Mr. Mittal's purchase of 100,000 JetBlue shares at an average price of $6 roughly per share.
Tamanna Suria
The last insider purchase that caught our eye was filed after the market closed last Friday and was a $200,000 purchase of Markel by the CEO Thomas Gaynor.
This is the first time Markel stock has crossed the $2,000 threshold, and it is interesting to see that he continues to buy, especially considering the stock has already appreciated by 30% since his last purchase in November of last year.
Asif Suria
As you know, Markel is often compared to Berkshire Hathaway because they have an insurance arm just like Berkshire Hathaway has GEICO and like Berkshire Hathaway, they tend to invest the float from the insurance division in both public and private companies instead of staying conservative and parking it all in bonds or other safe alternatives. Markel also has a venture capital arm.
I got a chance to attend the famous Markel brunch that is held the day after the Berkshire Hathaway meeting for the first time last year and met ton of interesting people, including the author William Green. I look forward to going to the Merkel Brunch once again this year.
Tamanna Suria
Actually, this year will be my very first time attending Berkshire Hathaway, so incredibly excited for that as well. That all being said, let's move to some of the standout buybacks this week.
Stock Buybacks
Asif Suria
Yeah, I remember that Reverse Morris Trust transaction quite well. Initially I was interested in investing in that, but then when I noticed how much debt Pfizer was spinning off into Viatris, I decided to hold back.
Let's switch gears and talk about another buyback announcement. PayPal announced a new CEO appointment in August 2023, and since Alex Chriss took the top spot about a month later, the stock was up almost 50%.
However, PayPal saw its stock drop from $90 to just under $78 in a single day last week after they reported Q4 earnings that beat estimates and provided strong 2025 guidance. So if they beat estimates and provided strong 2025 guidance, why would the stock drop?
The stock was down because of pressure they were seeing in their Braintree division. This is the division that provides white label or unbranded checkout options to other retailers and e-commerce companies, and competes with companies like Stripe and Adyen.
At least this pullback allows PayPal to execute on its massive new $15 billion buyback that represented 19% of its market cap at announcement. The company was already buying back stock and in the last four years has retired 14% of its shares outstanding. This includes buying back $6 billion of stock just in 2024. The stock is trading at about 12 times free cash flow, and I can see why management wants to deploy an additional $15 billion to buyback stock.
Tamanna Suria
The third and final large buyback announcement we want to discuss today is a $1 billion buyback by Fortune Brands, which represents nearly 12% of the market cap at announcement. Fortune Brands owns brands like Yale Locks, consumer faucets like Moen, and luxury bathroom fixtures like House of Rohl. They spun out their cabinet's division, called Masterbrand, in December 2022 and renamed themselves Fortune Brands Innovations.
In the two short years, Masterbrand has been public, the stock is up more than 116%. However, the parent, Fortune Brands, didn't do quite as well and is only up 19% since that spinoff. Fortune Brands Innovations has been buying back stock and has retired 11% of its shares outstanding in the last four years.
Asif Suria
I guess there's probably a whole lot more demand for cabinets than there is for bathroom fixtures. Let's see what happens going forward.
Management Transitions
Let's wrap up our episode today with a discussion of C-suite transitions. The dating app company Match Group, which owns the brand's Tinder, OKCupid, Match, Plenty of Fish, and a whole lot more, has had a difficult time the last few years in finding a good match when it comes to both investors and CEOs.
IAC spun off its remaining stake in Match in July 2020. After some initial excitement, which saw Match's stock more than triple in price from $50 in mid 2020 to more than $175 by late 2021, the bloom was off the rose with the stock down more than 55% over the last five years.
It is currently trading at around $35 per share after multiple quarters of shrinking revenue growth. It wasn't just the investors that dumped Match, but the C-suite was also a revolving door.
Tamanna Suria
Sharmistha Dubey who was Match's CEO after the IAC spinoff left in mid-2022. She was replaced by Bernard Kim, who came over from the mobile gaming company Zynga and lasted less than three years. He left in what we like to call a sudden departure, when the public announcement and the effective date of departure are less than 30 days apart.
Asif Suria
Tamanna Suria
Getting back to Spencer Rascoff, he had previously founded the travel company Hotwire and sold that to IAC for $685 million. Match is giving him a generous pay package to help turn the company around, including $800,000 in base pay, a discretionary cash bonus that is 200% of base pay, $7.2 million in restricted stock units, $10.8 million in performance stock units, an additional $30 million in performance stock units.
Asif Suria
If that was not enough, unless I'm reading the employment agreement incorrectly, for the fiscal year 2026, he's supposed to receive no less than $12 million of some combination of restricted stock units and performance stock units.
With this kind of money on the line and the guidance they have provided for 2025, we're likely to see the impact of Spencer Rascoff's turnaround in the second half of 2025. And just looking at what he's done since he left Zillow and the number of companies he's been involved with, I think he's going to bring a lot of energy to Match and finally Match might start seeing more investor interest in it.
Tamanna Suria
This week also brought with it a massive C-suite shakeup at Oscar Health. Oscar Health is actually a company we're quite familiar with. We last featured it as a spotlight idea for a December 2024 monthly newsletter.
Oscar Health is a mid-cap technology-driven health insurance company founded by Joshua Kushner, Mario Schlosser and Kevin Nazemi. The general public may recognize Joshua Kushner as the brother of Jared Kushner, son-in-law to President Trump.
Asif Suria
Oscar was first brought to our attention after a series of insider purchases in November of last year, totaling roughly $20 million by Joshua Kushner through his VC firm Thrive Capital. These purchases came at a time when every single insider in the company was selling shares, especially considering the 86% run up in Oscar's stock over the last year at that point in time.
Tamanna Suria
When looking at Oscar's leadership team, we were quite impressed. One of the co-founders, Mario Schlosser, remains the CTO of the company and had previously been CEO, but was replaced by Mark Bertolini.
Mark Bertolini is a veteran in the healthcare industry. He worked at the healthcare insurance giant, Aetna, for nearly 16 years and eventually served as the company's chairman and CEO. He stepped down from that role in November 2018, following CVS Health's $69 billion acquisition of the company, one of the largest healthcare insurance deals in M&A history.
Asif Suria
Which is why this week we were quite surprised to see a number of C-Suite transitions at Oscar Health. Oscar's Chief Insurance Officer will be departing the company altogether after a month. The COO resigned suddenly and the company's Chief Legal Officer is transitioning to the role of EVP of Public Affairs.
Oscar hired a new Chief Legal Officer and also hired Janet Liang from Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Health Plans to be EVP and President of Oscar Insurance. Ms. Liang will be responsible for overseeing the company's insurance and operations functions and has also been designated as the Principal Operating Officer, essentially replacing the Chief Insurance Officer and COO roles.
Tamanna Suria
These transitions came as a bit of a surprise, especially considering Oscar Held's full year 2024 earnings just came in and looked quite positive. Revenue was $9.2 billion, a 56% increase year over year, and the company finally flipped to being profitable, recording a net income of $25.4 million.
It'll be interesting to see if anything comes out in the next few weeks that would give us a little more insight into these rapid executive level changes at the company.
Asif Suria
Our last C-suite transition is definitely a simpler one. Johnson's Controls International, a conglomerate that produces fire, HVAC, and security equipment for buildings, just announced that, I'm going to likely butcher this name, Joakim Weidemanis will join the company as CEO, effective March 12, 2025.
Mr. Weidemanis will be replacing the current CEO George Oliver, who was with the company for over seven years and announced his retirement plan in July of last year. He stayed on as CEO of the company until a new CEO was found and will remain Chairman of the company until July 2025.
Tamanna Suria
We found the C-suite transition interesting considering that Mr. Weidemanis has spent over seven years at Danaher Corporation, a life sciences and diagnostics innovator. Investors familiar with GE may recognize Danaher as the current CEO of GE, Larry Culp, spent over 13 years as the CEO of Danaher.
Asif Suria
I heard a hedge fund manager mention that if you were to track the number of CEOs that have come out of Danaher and how well they've gone on to do at different companies, it's quite fascinating. This reminds me of maybe two or three decades ago, people who were trained at GE and would come out of GE would go on to do very well at other companies.
Tamanna Suria
Asif Suria
And if you enjoyed this podcast as much as both of us did recording it, please take a moment to like and subscribe on whatever platform you may be listening on and especially share it with your friends who are interested in either special situations or event-driven investing. Thank you!
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
