Ethereum Price Falls 8% Amid Market Volatility, ETF Inflows Still Surge

Ethereum ETH/USD dropped 8.3% overnight, sliding from $2,880 to $2,640. The move tracked heightened market volatility following Israel's airstrikes against Iran, even as U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs posted their largest single-day net inflows in months in a clear signal that long-term investors are confident.

Crypto saw a broad global selloff on Friday after Israel launched military airstrikes against Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions and rattling investor confidence.

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Meanwhile, ETF vehicles poured in $240.29 million in a day and notched an 18‑session streak of positive flows. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETHA led the charge with $163.6 million, pushing its holdings to over 1.55 million ETH (worth $4.23 billion).

The broader fundamentals show a steadier story. The Beacon Chain now holds 34.65 million ETH, nearly 29% of the circulating supply, per Glassnode. The increase reflects institutional appetite for yield, particularly in a high-volatility environment.

On‑chain volatility indicators are flashing mixed signals. The BBTrend indicator flipped bullish, jumping from –3 to 4.99 in 24 hours, and Coinglass reported $128.07 million in liquidations, with long positions accounting for $99.26 million. Open interest hit record highs, reinforcing that the current market is highly leveraged and prone to sharp swings.

The leverage is mirrored by whale behavior. Santiment reports that wallets with 1,000–10,000 ETH have declined for seven consecutive days to 5,378 addresses. The pullback in large-holder balances contrasts with rising institutional inflows, indicating hesitation around the key resistance at $2,850.

Etherealize’s recent report, "The Bull Case for ETH," offers a fresh anchor. Co-founder Vivek Raman argues that Ethereum’s fair value could reach $740,000 by comparing ETH’s monetary role to global reserve assets such as oil and M2 money supply.

Etherealize co-author, Danny Ryan, then highlighted Ethereum’s deflationary potential, pointing to the EIP-1559 upgrade’s insurance cap of 1.51%. He noted that the net inflation has averaged 0.092% since the September 2022 merge, making ETH one of the most supply-constrained crypto assets in the market.

The token scarcity underpins why the Ethereum network secures $767 billion in tokenized assets, over 80% of the total across all chains. The chain’s dominance in collateral, computation, and yield strategies cements its "digital oil" analogy that Raman has repeatedly invoked.

Trading and Technicals

RSI on Ethereum's daily chart dipped to 47, and the MACD flipped bearish, suggesting a shift in market momentum. Short-term price targets range from $3,300 to $4,000 if ETH can reclaim and hold $2,900. Analysts are drawing comparisons to Bitcoin’s 2018–2021 cycle, suggesting that a breakout above key resistance could open the door to $5,900 and higher.

Ethereum is stuck in a range for now, between $2,461 and $2,900. But the next big move likely comes down to ETF inflows, upgrade traction, and what the big wallets do. If it aligns, we might be looking at a shift in sentiment.

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