With the latest federal reserve 0.75% interest rate hike, the bear market flipped into the green with Bitcoin BTC/USD and Ethereum ETH/USD gains hitting 6% and 11% at the time of writing. Other top altcoins such as Dogecoin DOGE/USD and Solana SOL/USD surged by 13% and 19%, respectively.
As the financial markets celebrate quick gains, a reversal can happen and this could just be another bull trap with BTC heading towards a potentially yet-to-come bottom.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant suggests that exchanges' reserves have continued to rise, indicating high selling pressure. At the time of press, Bitcoin is fluctuating in the $21,123 - $21863 range with on-chain data indicating a less than one aSOPR, meaning that more investors are selling at a loss. In the middle of a bear market, this can indicate a market bottom.
Blockchain analytics tool LookIntoBitcoin’s on-chain Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) projects capitulation, which also indicates a dramatic surge of selling pressure in the ‘already’ declining market.
On a psychological scale, the current volatility of Bitcoin’s price action has also created ‘Extreme Fear,’ according to the Fear And Greed Index.
About 46.3% of Bitcoin supply circulating in the market is at loss; for macro capitulation, the historic data portrays that it's 14% away from touching previous bottoms' unrealized losses scales. When 60% of BTC’s supply makes unrealized losses, the bottom is met.
Additionally, BTC miners have not yet liquidated or sold their holdings yet but recent data from CoinMetrics details that over $2 billion worth of BTC has been moved by miners to exchanges.
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