- Bitcoin moves around February lows, after setting a low at $5,770. Crypto prices targeted the bottom of the bearish channels, but did not cover any more room to the downside.
- The last time these price levels were visited, the strong bullish rally at the end of 2017 began.
After a few days of rest, I return to the screens and try to analyze the heavy falls suffered in the Crypto board. The main Cryptocurrency prices went down with high volumes, a detail that validates the movement. On the buyers' side, the emergence of new divergent structures must be monitored.
BTC/USD 240 Min
Bitcoin seems to have stabilized its price at $6,150 during the European opening hours of the week. The key $6,000 level was drilled down, but it was not able to close below that level in the 240-minute hourly range,.
A distinctly bearish scenario is opening up, although the appearance of multiple divergences between price and technical indicators should be taken into account. The range of $5,770 to $6,300 is entirely clear of any technical limiters.
On the upside, it is necessary for Bitcoin to breach $6,300 to enter a bullish scenario. If this condition is met, first resistance at $6,560 for price congestion. Continued bullish momentum would bring the BTC/USD to the second level of congested price resistance at $6,880. Already at the $7,100 level, another price resistance converges with the EMA50 in the 240-Min chart.
On the sell-side, first support at $5,800, the June 23rd low, followed by the $5,600 level where the downward channel roof that now serves as support is located. Beyond there, support levels for price congestion at $5,400 and the round number at the $5,000 level.
MACD at the 240-Min chart shows no acceleration with the recent declines. There is a substantial divergence from the lows seen at the beginning of the month. Similar divergences appear in daily charts.
The Directional Movement Index at the 240-Min chart shows us some very active buyers after the lows of June 23rd. Sellers increased their activity significantly throughout the down leg and, despite their decreasing strength, continue to control the situation. The ADX is trading near the 37 level, so the trend continues strongly.
ETH/USD 240 Min
ETH/USD left the low at $420 to then bounce back 10 percent to $460. The technical scenario is complicated as the price is within a dense network of supports, resistances, channels and trend lines.
The current range is framed within an expansive bearish wedge already below the wide bearish channel that has contained the price since mid-April. The narrowness of this structure increases the possibility that it will be broken both up and down.
In the event of an upward movement, Ethereum would face a double obstacle in the form of baselines of channels of different inclinations, the first and most important at $460, followed by a lower intensity at $470. No less important are the following obstacles that can be encountered, as the $480 would expect the EMA50 and a price congestion resistance.
Below that, there is significant support at the $420 level where the downward trend of the bearish wedge and a price congestion support level pass through. Should the current bearish trend continue, the next support level at $400 would open the door to the lows seen in late March with multiple supports at $360.
The MACD at the 240-Min chart moves in the field but slightly upward across the board. Similar to Bitcoin, divergences are drawn with the recent minimums. This type of divergent structure can also be seen on the daily chart.
The Directional Movement Index at the 240-Min chart shows sellers at high levels after intensely following the downward leg of the last few days. Buyers reacted at the $420 level with an increase in activity to immediately come back down to higher prices. The ADX remains at high levels, reinforcing the continuation of the current bearish trend.
XRP/USD 240 Min
The XRP/USD reached levels not seen since December 13th. It has unwinded all the lush climb of late 2017 and has opened the door to lower levels.
Strong sells led the XRP/USD to the base of the bearish channel that rules its movements since early May. Below this channel baseline, the first distant support at $0.40 and already far away and with no intermediate impediment, $0.286.
On the bullish side, the first target at $0.55 is where price congestion resistance and EMA50 meet. Beyond that, there is a reasonably clean terrain to the $0.54 range where the SMA100 is moving and where there is also a price congestion resistance. As we can see, it will not be easy to cross these levels.
The MACD at the 240-Min chart is crossed upwards, with a divergent structure from the lows set on June 13th. These divergent structures appear on a daily basis in a similar way seen to the Bitcoin and Ethereum analyses.
The Directional Movement Index at the 240-Min chart shows us how in this case were the sellers who decreased their activity at the $0.44 level. Buyers increased their activity slightly, but not enough to attribute them the recovery to the current levels of $0.47. The ADX remains unchanged at levels of strong trend and has not decreased in any way since the current price recovery started.
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