Gold is having a blockbuster year, and speculation is mounting that there's more than just inflation or tariff hedging behind the move — with some experts now floating the possibility that the Donald Trump administration may be quietly buying gold.
In a tweet on social media X, Otavio Costa, portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, said the price action doesn't look like normal institutional buying.
“The U.S. government is the one buying here,” he said.
"The price action has been extraordinary — no institutional investor would be chasing like this. It's a central-bank-led move unlike anything we've seen before. A gold rush, if you will," he added.
Gold prices – as tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) – rose to $4,250 on Thursday, up over 60% year-to-date, on track for their best-performing year since 1979. The precious metal is currently on its ninth-straight week of gain – the longest streak since August 2020.
In a CNBC appearance Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was pressed on whether gold’s move reflects any anti-dollar sentiment from other economies. While he dismissed speculations about a wave of de-dollarization, he acknowledged that there are more buyers than sellers in gold.
Chart: Gold Is On Track For The Strongest Year Of Gains Since 1979
Bank of America And Yardeni Raise Gold Forecasts
Earlier this week, Bank of America raised its 2026 price forecast for gold to $5,000 per ounce, citing a powerful mix of ETF inflows and central bank buying.
The bank said ETF inflows surged 880% year over year in September, reaching $14 billion — an all-time monthly record.
Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni echoed the bullish tone in a note on Wednesday. "We are now aiming for $5,000 in 2026. If it continues its current path, it could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade or sooner," he wrote.
"Bitcoin has been described as ‘digital gold,' but we see gold as ‘physical bitcoin,'" Yardeni said, arguing that gold remains the superior safe-haven asset in a time of growing geopolitical and fiscal instability.
Even JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, typically a skeptic of non-productive assets like gold or Bitcoin, said this week that gold could easily go to $5,000, or even $10,000 in an economic environment like this.
“This is one of the few times in my life it's semi-rational to own some," Dimon added.
Central Banks Are Leading The Charge
What's not in dispute is the aggressive pace of gold buying by central banks. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks have been net buyers for 17 consecutive months. In August alone, they added a net 19 metric tonnes, following a July pullback.
"Central banks remain keen to continue increasing their exposure," said Krishan Gopaul, a strategist at the World Gold Council.
Poland has been the most active sovereign buyer in 2025, adding more than 60 tonnes to its reserves.
Much of this demand stems from heightened geopolitical risk and concerns about reliance on the U.S. dollar in cross-border trade.
Is The US Treasury Stockpiling Gold?
There's no confirmation that the U.S. government is accumulating gold, but the theory is gaining traction, especially in light of the stark difference between gold's current market value and how it's reported on the federal balance sheet.
The U.S. holds 261.5 million troy ounces of gold — approximately 8,133 metric tons — the largest official stockpile in the world. Yet this hoard is still booked at just $42.22 per ounce, a valuation set in 1973.
That pegs the entire U.S. reserve at $11 billion. At today's prices near $4,250 per ounce, that same stockpile is worth roughly $1.1 trillion.
In August, a paper by Federal Reserve economist Colin Weiss explored the idea of using revaluation gains on gold to reduce U.S. public debt without raising taxes or issuing new Treasury bonds.
If the gold on the books were marked to market, the paper value would jump to over $1 trillion.
That wouldn't fix the $35 trillion debt problem overnight, but it could provide a meaningful fiscal breathing room.
Bottom Line
Is Washington secretly buying gold? We don't know. But the pace of buying, the price action, and the macro narrative around currency diversification all suggest that something unusual is happening.
This isn't just about inflation or interest rates anymore. It's about a global shift in power, trust, and monetary regimes.
Whether the U.S. is preparing for that shift or simply riding the wave, gold is once again at the center of it all.
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