The outlook for U.S. and global corn and soybean crops in 2025 is generally positive, with strong vegetation health in corn-growing regions and stable conditions for soybeans globally. The record-high yield estimates for corn and the favorable weather forecast for soybeans in August point to a promising harvest season ahead. Global soybean production has also seen positive developments, with key growing regions experiencing stable conditions throughout the summer. The absence of extreme heatwaves has minimized the risk of widespread crop stress, benefiting soybean yields in major producing countries. The surge in U.S. corn supplies for the 2025/26 season can be attributed to a record-large crop and higher carry-in stocks. The latest survey-based yield estimate for corn stands at an impressive 188.8 bushels per acre, setting a new high for the industry.
Corn: Early- to Mid-Season Moisture Adequate for Crop Development
Remarkably, U.S. corn growing conditions have been exceptionally favorable over the past month. Consistent summer rainfall across much of the Corn Belt has kept drought to a minimum – as of early August, only about 3% of U.S. corn acreage was in moderate or worse drought, compared to 5% a year ago. Corn crop ratings reflect this benevolent weather: 74% of the U.S. corn crop was rated good/excellent as of late July, the highest for that date in almost a decade. With adequate soil moisture and only isolated dryness in fringe areas, U.S. corn yields could challenge record levels barring any late-season heat stress.
In the United States, much of the Midwest enjoyed near- to above-normal temperatures that supported grain fill, with the eastern Corn Belt benefiting from timely rainfall helping maintain adequate soil moisture. However, some parts of the western Corn Belt, including sections of Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas, faced periods of dryness, leading to localized moisture stress. Cumulative precipitation data for the United States in 2025 shows totals generally tracking close to the long-term normal but remaining below 2024 levels for most of the growing season. By early August, 2025 precipitation slightly exceeded normal due to several widespread rain events, particularly in the eastern Corn Belt. However, western areas continued to experience localized dryness, highlighting regional disparities despite the overall near-normal cumulative totals. This rainfall pattern has helped sustain soil moisture in many areas, but yield outcomes will depend on whether late-season precipitation meets crop water requirements during the grain-fill stage.
Short-term forecasts indicate seasonal to slightly above-normal temperatures across much of the Corn Belt, with light to moderate precipitation expected in the next one to two weeks. This should aid late-season development, but rain deficits in the drier pockets could still pose a yield risk if the forecast underdelivers.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
In South America, Brazil's safrinha corn harvest advanced under mostly dry conditions in central and southern regions, favorable for fieldwork. While high-yield potential was reported in key producing states like Mato Grosso, some southern areas noted yield variability stemming from earlier-season dryness. Argentina's corn harvest is essentially complete, and weather conditions there are now more relevant for soil moisture recharge ahead of the next planting season. By June, soil moisture had dropped to roughly 310 millimeters (12.2 inches), indicating drier-than-average conditions heading into the next planting period. These deficits could limit early-season crop establishment if timely rains do not arrive.
In the Black Sea region, particularly Ukraine and southwestern Russia, hot and dry weather accelerated crop maturity but also stressed non-irrigated corn in southern and central zones. In contrast, northern and western Ukraine benefited from more consistent rainfall, which helped stabilize yield potential. Forecasts suggest continued heat in parts of the region, though some late-period showers could provide localized relief.
In China, growing conditions in the Northeast Corn Belt have been generally favorable, with adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures promoting healthy development. However, the North China Plain experienced notable heatwaves, potentially limiting grain fill for later-maturing fields. However, unlike 2024, which experienced a sharp surge in rainfall from late July onward, 2025 totals plateaued in early August at around 400 millimeters (15.75 inches), falling behind both the wetter 2024 season and the historical trend, potentially increasing vulnerability to late-season heat or dryness.
As U.S. corn supplies are surging in 2025/26 on a record-large crop and higher carry-in stocks, the first survey-based yield estimate is 188.8 bushels/acre – a new high – pushing production to 16.7 billion bushels (up 1.0 billion from July's forecast). Coincidentally, domestic use is rising, led by feed and residual demand (up 250 million bushels) and a slight uptick in ethanol grind, thanks to the abundant harvest and cheaper corn prices.
Even after stronger usage, U.S. ending stocks are projected at 2.1 billion bushels, up nearly 0.46 billion from last month and the largest carryout since 2018/19. Accordingly, the 2025/26 season-average farm price is cut $0.30 to $3.90 per bushel, reflecting the bearish supply situation.
Globally, corn output is expected to increase as well, with record U.S. production offsetting slight reductions in Europe; world corn ending stocks are forecast around 282.6 million tons, more than 10 million above the prior outlook. Overall, the corn market in August 2025 faces a robust supply backdrop and building inventories, pressuring prices.
Soybeans: Reduced Harvested Area Offset by a Higher Yield
Weather conditions for soybeans from June through early August 2025 have also generally been favorable in major producing regions. Thus, across the U.S. Midwest temperatures during late June and July remained close to seasonal norms, supporting vegetative growth and early reproductive development. Globally, no extreme heat waves have been reported in key soybean zones during this period, which has reduced the risk of widespread crop stress. Forecasts for the remainder of August in the U.S. indicate seasonally warm temperatures with pockets of above-average rainfall in the eastern.
Precipitation was near to slightly above average in many central and eastern areas, ensuring adequate soil moisture for pod setting. However, parts of the western Midwest experienced intermittent dryness, and southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and eastern Nebraska recorded short-term moisture deficits, which could limit yield potential in those zones if conditions persist. From July to August 2025, soil moisture levels in the United States' soy-growing regions remained close to or slightly above the long-term average, supporting crop development during the critical pollination and grain-filling stages. After moderate fluctuations earlier in the season, July saw relatively stable moisture conditions, with values for 2025 tracking just above normal levels and higher than the dry 2024 season.
Meanwhile, soybean trade in 2025 is under strong pressure from U.S.–China tensions and fierce South American competition. China, historically a major U.S. buyer, has effectively halted purchases due to ongoing high tariffs — recently raised to 125% — and has shifted almost entirely to Brazilian and Argentine supplies.
In South America, Brazil's southern soybean-producing states saw mild and mostly dry weather through mid-winter, consistent with the seasonal off-cycle after the harvest, while northern states received scattered showers. This precipitation benefits soil recharge ahead of the next planting window.
Argentina's main growing areas, currently in the fallow period, experienced generally dry conditions, which could improve field access for pre-planting activities but may require timely spring rains to replenish soil moisture.
The U.S. soybean balance for 2025/26 is slightly tighter than before. Beginning stocks were revised down by 20 million bushels, and production is now forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, about 43 million below the July projection due to reduced harvested area (down 2.4 million acres) partially offset by a higher yield of 53.6 bu/acre. With supply trimmed and export demand sluggish, the USDA cut projected soybean exports by 40 million bushels for the new crop year.
Crush demand is unchanged, sustaining a large domestic use for animal feed and biofuel. The net effect is U.S. ending stocks of 290 million bushels, a modest decline from last month. Importantly, world soybean ending stocks are now projected at 124.9 million tons – about 1.2 million lower than before – marking a slight tightening in global supply-demand balance.
Unlike corn and wheat, soybean prices are holding steady – the 2025/26 U.S. season-average price is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel, as the market had already anticipated the slightly smaller crop. World soybean production in 2025/26 is reduced mainly because of the U.S. cut and a smaller Serbian crop.
A key price driver this year is policy-linked demand from renewable fuels. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard "Set 2" and new state-level low-carbon fuel mandates have boosted domestic soybean oil use for biodiesel and renewable diesel, tightening oil supplies for export but not offsetting the loss in bean sales abroad.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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