This analysis was conducted in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova- analyst (LSE).
Current natural gas prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration by month since 2010
The price situation of natural gas has remained virtually unchanged compared to last week. Summer 2025 contracts are trading a little bit above the median price at expiration but remain within the interquartile range. Winter 2026 and 2027 contracts remain above the upper range. We expect prices to stabilize.
Forward curve compared to 2020-2024
Despite the fact that 2025 contracts with delivery in three years’ time are close to the prices of 2023 and 2024 contracts with corresponding delivery terms, there remains a strong skew in the forward curve for near-term deliveries (1-2 years) and long-term deliveries (5-6 years).
Current stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
For week 27 (June 28 – July 3), we expect an increase in storage of 63 BCF. The fill rate is above the median for the previous five years. Injection rates have recovered after last week’s decline, and if the current supply and demand conditions remain unchanged, peak levels for 2024 are possible. Weather and seasonal phenomena in the second half of summer remain a limiting factor.
Weekly HDD+CDD total based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024
The weather is gradually stabilizing. We expect Week 28 to remain hot compared to the last 30 years, but forecasts indicate a return to the median by July 29.
Explanation of the graph: the candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots are for 2024, green dots are for 2025, and blue dots are predictions for 2025.
Weekly HDD+CDD total based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region
If we look at the situation by region, we see a similar stabilization of weather conditions in virtually all regions.
Weekly total difference between supply and demand compared to 2014-2024
The factors contributing to the difference between supply and demand are not yet approaching the median. In the current 28th week, the balance is still well below historical levels.
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