Something's shifting in the bond market, with a new wave of unease creeping in, and some of Wall Street's most experienced voices observing a sombre silence.
What Happened: On Wednesday, Spencer Hakimian, the founder of Tolou Capital Management, shared a post on X highlighting a growing consensus among the world’s leading fixed income traders that U.S. Treasuries are no longer the safe bet that they once were.
According to the screenshot of the Bloomberg article shared by Hakimian, large fixed income operators, such as DoubleLine Capital, Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), and TCW Group, are all backing away from long-dated U.S. government bonds.
They're instead opting for shorter-term Treasuries, citing escalating federal debt and interest-rate risks, highlighting deepening anxiety in the U.S. fiscal trajectory.
While sharing the screenshot, Hakimian writes, “The best bond traders in the world telling you straight up to stop buying bonds,” adding that it’s because “our country is bankrupt,” and no one is bold enough to fix it.
In another post on X, just a few minutes before this one, Hakimian highlights the growing U.S. entitlement spending, which he says is going up 15% year-over-year. “No one cares,” he says, adding that neither party can implement a solution, as “we’re selling bonds into oblivion.”
“Our currency has lost all its value against real currencies like Gold and Bitcoin,” he says, while saying that the U.S. is headed right into the “graveyard of failed empires” because of this problem. Hakimian concludes by saying, “invest accordingly.”
Why It Matters: Several experts and economists have raised concerns regarding America’s fiscal trajectory, especially in-light of President Donald Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” which is expected to make it worse.
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers recently called the bill a prescription for “deadly, dangerous decline,” while calling it a setup for a potential “Liz Truss moment,” referring to the former British Prime Minister’s short reign, which was upended by turmoil in the bond market.
Even Trump-ally, Elon Musk, has come out in criticism of the bill, saying that it "undermines the work" that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been doing under his leadership.
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