The Bitcoin Train Left the Station at $111K—Or Did It? This On-Chain Expert Says We're Still at the Platform

Bitcoin’s surge to $111,000 in late May has left many investors wondering whether they’ve missed the boat—or if the real gains are just getting started. According to PlanB, one of cryptocurrency’s most followed analysts, we may be witnessing something unprecedented: a “different” kind of bull market that’s only just begun.

The Halving Cycle Clock is Ticking Orange

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $111,000 at the end of last month, surpassing its previous peak of $102,000 from earlier this year. But according to PlanB’s market cycle analysis, this milestone comes with a crucial timing element: we’re now approximately 34 months away from Bitcoin’s next halving event in 2028.

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PlanB uses a color-coded system to track Bitcoin’s position within its four-year halving cycles, and the indicator has just turned “orange”—signaling we’re in the early phases of what could be an extended bull market. Think of these colors as a countdown timer rather than a crystal ball: orange, yellow, green, and blue represent different stages leading up to the next halving, when Bitcoin’s supply growth rate gets cut in half again.

“This isn’t predictive,” PlanB emphasizes. “It’s detection—telling us where we are in the cycle, not where we’re going.”

A ‘Flatter, Longer’ Bull Market Unlike Any Before

What makes this cycle particularly intriguing is its unconventional shape. Unlike the explosive, vertical runs of 2017 or 2020, this bull market is characterized as “flatter and longer”—a pattern that might actually signal more sustainable, institutional-driven growth.

The current market structure is based on on-chain analysis rather than PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model, focusing on actual Bitcoin network activity and holder behavior. After what PlanB calls a “fake loop” following January 2024’s ETF introductions, Bitcoin has returned to where previous bull markets typically began their major ascents.

Key insight: Despite Bitcoin already reaching six figures, PlanB believes we’re at the “very beginning” of this bull cycle—a potentially explosive revelation for long-term investors.

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The RSI Story: Why ‘Overbought’ Doesn’t Apply to Bitcoin

Traditional investors often rely on the Relative Strength Index to gauge whether an asset is overbought (typically above 70) or oversold (below 30). But Bitcoin plays by different rules.

While conventional assets fluctuate between RSI levels of 30-70, Bitcoin’s RSI typically ranges between 40-45 and 90-95, with an average around 65. Currently sitting near 69, Bitcoin’s RSI has room to run much higher before signaling genuine overextension.

The math gets interesting: PlanB expects Bitcoin’s RSI to climb above 80, historically associated with monthly returns of 40% or higher. If Bitcoin sustained four consecutive months of 40% gains from current levels around $104,000, the price could theoretically reach $400,000.

However, there’s a potential wrinkle: as traditional finance professionals enter the Bitcoin market, their conventional RSI interpretations might lead to earlier profit-taking, potentially creating a “tighter range” than in previous cycles.

On-Chain Fundamentals Paint a Bullish Picture

Beyond technical indicators, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics tell a compelling story through “realized price”—essentially the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders based on when coins last moved on the blockchain.

Currently, the realized prices stand at:

• Overall realized price: $47,000
• Two-year realized price: $81,000
• Five-month realized price: $96,000

With Bitcoin currently trading around $104,000—well above all these cost basis levels—and all realized prices trending upward, the data suggests strong underlying demand and holder conviction. This pattern, where Bitcoin trades above rising realized prices, has historically continued for months or even entire years.

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The $500K Question: Is Bitcoin Still Undervalued?

Perhaps most striking is PlanB’s long-term valuation framework. Despite Bitcoin’s impressive run to six figures, he argues the cryptocurrency remains “very undervalued” relative to its Stock-to-Flow model value of $500,000—projected as the average price for this four-year cycle based on Bitcoin’s increasing scarcity.

The projected price range for this cycle spans $250,000 to $1 million, with three years remaining in the current cycle. Supporting this bullish thesis is the continued divergence between Bitcoin’s geometric and arithmetic 200-week moving averages—a technical pattern that has historically characterized major bull markets.

What This Means for Investors

For Long-term Holders: The analysis suggests patience may be rewarded, with the bulk of gains potentially still ahead despite Bitcoin’s already impressive performance.

For New Investors: While $104,000 might seem like a daunting entry point, the on-chain and cycle analysis suggests we may be in the early innings of a multi-year bull market.

Risk Considerations: Remember that cycle-based analysis isn’t foolproof. Regulatory changes, macroeconomic shifts, or unexpected technical developments could alter Bitcoin’s trajectory. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, especially at these elevated price levels.

The Bottom Line

PlanB’s analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that Bitcoin’s move to six figures represents a cycle peak. Instead, the data suggests we may be witnessing the opening act of an unconventional but potentially powerful bull market—one that’s “flatter and longer” than previous cycles but could ultimately reach even greater heights.

Whether you’re a Bitcoin maximalist or a skeptical observer, the confluence of on-chain metrics, cycle positioning, and technical indicators presents a compelling case for continued attention to the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Just remember: in Bitcoin, as in all investments, higher potential returns come with higher risks.

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