'This Crypto Cycle Will Be Bigger And Last Longer Than Most People Think,' Bitwise Investment Chief Says

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has suggested that the current cryptocurrency cycle may be different.
• Hougan first made the argument that the four-year cryptocurrency market cycle could be over in January.
• Hougan is not the only expert to suggest that the four-year cycle may be over.

The cryptocurrency market may be set to deviate from one of its most well-known patterns.

Most investors who have dabbled in the space long enough will tell you that the market runs on a four-year cycle of three positive years and a major reset. Depending on who you ask, this cycle is either driven by the Bitcoin halving or broader economic factors. Whatever the case, it has proven true for over a decade. 

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Following a positive run in 2023 and 2024 and what appears to be a continuation in 2025, the market should be due for a reset in 2026, according to the cycle. But this time is different, according to Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan.

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‘A Coiled Spring’

Hougan said Thursday on X that “this crypto cycle will be bigger and last longer than most people think.”

Hougan said this, citing the hostile regulatory environment the cryptocurrency industry faced under the Biden administration. He argued that while applications and use cases were suppressed, the underlying infrastructure continued to improve.

“As we remove the regulatory road blocks [sic], the speed at which things like stablecoins, tokenization, DeFi and DePin will scale will surprise people,” he said. “It’s a coiled spring.”

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It is not the first time Hougan has suggested that the four-year cycle may be over. He made the argument in January, citing President Donald Trump‘s first cryptocurrency executive order. The order called the digital asset ecosystem “a national priority,” pushed for steps toward the establishment of a clear regulatory framework and teased the idea of “a national crypto stockpile.”

Hougan said that the executive order, combined with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s more favorable attitude toward the industry, opened the door for trillions of dollars to enter the market. But he noted that it would take at least a year for any significant changes to be felt.

“If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” Hougan mused. “Will investors go into hibernation even though they know we’ve entered a new crypto-enabled world?”

Still, at the time, Hougan submitted that the cryptocurrency market may not have yet fully overcome the four-year cycle. Citing growing leveraged plays, he said there would likely be a wipeout at some point. However, he stressed that, unlike  before, any major pullbacks would likely be “shorter and shallower.” 

“The crypto space has matured; there’s a greater variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before. I expect volatility, but I’m not sure I’d bet against crypto in 2026,” he said.

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