Bitcoin has been on a strong run recently, breaking through key resistance levels and positioning itself near all-time highs. But the question remains: as equities, specifically the Nasdaq, approach a critical technical level, will broader market momentum slow and pull Bitcoin down with it?
BTC and Nasdaq: Still Some Correlation, But Less Than Before
Historically, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq have moved in tandem, particularly during major macroeconomic shifts or risk-on/risk-off environments. However, recent price action suggests that Bitcoin has started to carve out its own path. While not completely detached from equity markets, Bitcoin has shown growing signs of independence as its underlying fundamentals strengthen.
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For readers interested in this evolving relationship between Bitcoin and traditional markets, an article I wrote in early April explores the long-term outlook for Bitcoin amid recession fears. It makes the case for why Bitcoin may hold up better than many expect, especially in the digital asset era.
Watching the Nasdaq as a Market Compass
Keeping a close eye on equity indices like the Nasdaq remains important. These indices act as a compass for the broader market environment. When equity markets are under pressure, crypto assets often feel the impact — even if Bitcoin is showing signs of resilience.
At last look, the Nasdaq, based on the NQ futures chart, is trading right at the 0.62 Fibonacci retracement level from the December high to the April low. This level is historically significant. It's where sellers may step in or where traders who bought earlier could take profits. That kind of activity can bring downward pressure across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
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Structure Comparison: BTC Stronger Than Tech
From a structural standpoint, the difference between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin is clear. Bitcoin is trading above its March highs and is closing in on its all-time high — a sign of strong bullish momentum. In contrast, the Nasdaq remains below its March highs and is still trading under the lows seen around the election. This shows relatively weaker performance in the tech space.
If the Nasdaq sees rejection at this 0.62 retracement level, Bitcoin may experience some correlation-driven selling or caution-driven retracement. But the overall trend in Bitcoin remains notably stronger.
Momentum and Fundamentals Back Bitcoin
What stands out in this current market phase is Bitcoin's ability to hold its strength. Price action is bullish, and the fundamentals continue to improve. Institutional interest is growing, weekly regulatory clarity is advancing, and adoption is steadily rising. Bitcoin is being treated less like a speculative asset and more like a long-term financial instrument.
All Eyes on All-Time Highs
The next clear target for Bitcoin is its all-time high. Whether it breaks through that level now or after a healthy retracement will depend in part on how the Nasdaq behaves at this critical level. A continuation in tech strength could help fuel the rally. However, even if the Nasdaq pulls back, Bitcoin has shown enough independence to suggest it may stay resilient — or even lead.
The next few weeks will be key in determining whether Bitcoin's current momentum is just another bullish leg — or the beginning of a major breakout in its own right.
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