Crypto Prediction Markets Fail To See Pope Leo XIV Coming

• Bettors on popular cryptocurrency prediction markets saw little chance of Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost being elected pope.
• Most bettors were left disappointed while a few walked away with a small fortune.
• Undeterred by the losses in the prediction markets, cryptocurrency market speculators shifted their attention elsewhere.

Cryptocurrency prediction markets broke into mainstream consciousness in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Mainstream news outlets quoted odds from popular platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi alongside traditional opinion polls as analysts asserted that these prediction markets had the potential to be more accurate than polls. The idea is that with participants putting their money where their mouth is, they are incentivized to stand behind what they actually believe.

Indeed, these prediction markets outperformed traditional polls in predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. One might believe this prowess should carry on to a prediction market on who would be the next pope, but the results suggest otherwise.

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Tough Chance

On Thursday, the College of Cardinals elected Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, who  chose the name Leo XIV, as pope, beating 99-to-1 odds on Polymarket. Specifically, bettors on the platform saw only a 1% chance of Prevost being elected pope. 

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's secretary of state, was the favorite by a wide margin, with 28% odds, mirroring odds on traditional markets, Newsweek reported Wednesday. Behind Parolin was Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, with 20% odds.

Similarly, on Kalshi, Bettors only gave Prevost a 1.2% chance of being elected pope right before the end, with the odds for Parolin surging as high as 68.2%.

Ultimately, most bettors were left disappointed while a few walked away with a small fortune. One lucky Polymarket bettor, in particular, walked away with about $80,000, winning nearly $64,000 from a roughly $1,000 bet on Prevost and almost $16,000 for a $40,000 bet against Parolin. 

Across Polymarket and Kalshi, bettors wagered $40.8 million on the outcome of the conclave.

Meanwhile, undeterred by the losses in the prediction markets, cryptocurrency market speculators shifted their attention elsewhere. 

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Pope Inspired Memecoins Soar Briefly

Benzinga reported on Thursday that memecoins inspired by the new pope experienced significant rallies.

POPE267, a Solana-based meme coin referring to Pope Leo XIV’s election as the 267th leader of the Catholic Church, surged over 1000% following the election. However, the token has failed to hold these gains. As of last look, it has tanked by over 77%.

Another Solana memecoin, POPE69, leaning into the memetic value of the number 69 and referring to the pope’s age, also surged about 180%. As of last look, however, it has nearly erased all of its value, trading over 95% lower.

Pope Leo XIV is the first pope from the U.S. and the first from Peru. He obtained Peruvian citizenship after serving there for years. In his first address to the faithful on Thursday, he outlined a vision of “a missionary church, a church that builds bridges and encourages dialogue, a church ever open to welcoming, like this square with its open arms, all those who are in need of our charity, our presence, our readiness to dialogue and our love.”

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