Bitcoin has had an impressive week, trading up over 3% from a low of $93,700 to a high of $97,865. As of Friday afternoon, it is retracing slightly, hovering around $96,600. While the momentum remains bullish in the short term, price has now reached a major technical level that could act as a potential turning point.
Back on April 8, I discussed why Bitcoin may not be the type of asset to sell in a recession-feared environment. Since then, Bitcoin has surged by 26%, affirming the idea that it remains a high-demand store of value amid uncertainty. However, just because the price has rallied does not mean we are heading straight for new all-time highs. In fact, current technical conditions suggest that we may be approaching a critical decision point.
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The Key Weekly Level: .612 Fibonacci Retracement
From a technical standpoint, the most important level to watch right now is the .612 Fibonacci retracement from the weekly swing high of $110,000 to the low of $74,450. This retracement level lands at $96,493—a price area Bitcoin is currently testing.
This is a natural level of interest for both bulls and bears. It often acts as a resistance zone in trending markets and may lead to profit-taking, hesitation, or even a rejection. That said, this doesn't mean a reversal is guaranteed—it's a level to watch, not a crystal ball.
If Bitcoin does start to roll over from here, there are a few downside levels worth monitoring:
- $92,700 – Equal lows on the four-hour chart, which could act as a liquidity magnet, drawing price lower toward stop-loss clusters.
- $91,619 – A recent swing low formed on the four-hour chart and the low of day on April 24.
- $90,561 – An old breakaway gap level on the four-hour chart, which could fill if downward momentum picks up.
- $88,752 – A key former resistance level that was broken through on April 22. If Bitcoin trades all the way back to this level, it would likely signal a deeper pullback and potentially invalidate this leg of the rally.
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What's Next?
The broader structure on the weekly, daily, and four-hour charts still looks healthy, and Bitcoin remains in a higher timeframe uptrend. But with price tapping the .612 retracement level, the market must now decide whether this level acts as a springboard for further upside—or a ceiling that forms a significant lower high relative to the $110,000 peak.
From a trading perspective, this is not a time to panic, but rather to pay close attention to how price reacts in this zone. A clean rejection with follow-through could justify a more cautious short-term outlook, while a strong reclaim and close above $97,865 could open the door to retest higher levels.
In short, Bitcoin has reached a key technical crossroad. Whether it pushes higher or pulls back, traders should be prepared for increased volatility and use these levels to frame potential scenarios going forward.
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