RBA Shocks The Market As Lingering Inflation Blocks A Rate Cut

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shocked the market last week by holding rates at 3.85%. The market was pricing in a 25bps cut, implying an 88% chance. Still, after a two-day meeting, the central bank cited a cautious inflation outlook, winning the vote by six to three.

“The Board judged that it could wait for a little more information to confirm that inflation remains on track to reach 2.5 per cent on a sustainable basis,” the bank said in a statement. Despite a monthly inflation coming at 2.4%, a multi-year low in May, the RBA noted that the data “suggests that June quarter inflation is likely to be broadly in line with the forecast, they were, at the margin, slightly stronger than expected.”

Market reaction was swift, showing once again the unprecedented central bank influence on the forex market. The Australian dollar rallied, paring some yearly losses against most currencies, particularly the Japanese yen (2%). It also gained against the New Zealand dollar (1%), whose central bank held the rates at 3.25%, as anticipated. The week ahead will bring more inflation news from the US and Canada, as well as Australian employment data and the US retail sales numbers.

Key News:

• Tuesday: CAD – CPI, USD – CPI
• Wednesday: GBP – CPI, USD – PPI
• Thursday: AUD – Unemployment, USD – Retail Sales

Pairs In Focus

1. GBP NZD

This pair failed to break the May high and remains in the range established since early April. However, by the end of last week, it had broken the key level at 2.24750. If the price opens around or below that level, there is a potential to sell the pullbacks for continuation to the downside.

GBP NZD daily chart, Source: TradingView

The first support sits around 2.23800, while the lower support of the multi-month range is at 2.22200.

2. CAD JPY

The Japanese yen is likely to continue weakening until there is clarification from the Bank of Japan regarding the potential interest rate hike. If that happens, there will be pullbacks; however, until then, commodity currencies like CAD and JPY are likely to further strengthen.

CAD JPY daily chart, Source: TradingView

This pair broke the key level at 107.050, and any pullbacks could provide an opportunity for long positions. The initial target is around 108.500, while the long-term target is around 109.650. Retail sentiment is 66% short, making this setup a good contrarian opportunity.

Notes:

• AUD NZD: Broke above the equilibrium level of 1.08180 and rallied above May's high, flipping the intermediate bias to long.
• AUD CAD: Rallied above the high from June. It still needs to surpass the highs from April at 0.90300 for the trend reversal.
• AUD CHF: Remains in a bearish trend despite the short-term pullback. It might provide an entry for opportunistic shorts as long as it keeps below the previous week's high.
• AUD JPY:  Rallied above the key level of 95.250 and reached the highs from February.
• AUD SGD: Moved higher, but the push was weaker when compared to other AUD pairs, speaking to the current strength of the SGD.
• CHF JPY:  Surpassed 185, moving beyond all the bullish targets. Remains in a very strong uptrend.
• EUR AUD: Pulled back lower, finding support at 1.77200. A potential move lower will depend on breaking that support.
• EUR/JPY: Established yet another yearly high, moving past 172. The bullish push is practically vertical.
• EUR NZD: Pulled back after rallying for the majority of June. The trend remains bullish as long as support holds. That support is likely around 1.92700.
• NZD CHF: Resumed the bearish trend after a brief pullback. The target remains at the lows from April.
• GBP AUD: Broke toward the lows, reaching liquidity at 2.05. The next week will show whether this was a pullback or the long-term trend can flip.
• GBP JPY: Made fresh highs, but failed at the first attempt to breach 199.700.

Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed in this article are not to be considered investment advice and are solely those of the authors. Singapore Forex Club is not responsible for any financial decisions based on this article’s contents. We provide research and promote forex trading in Singapore, and readers may use this data for information and educational purposes only.