How To Play Bernanke's QE3

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking in front of Congress, and the
prepared remarks
tweeted
June 22 FOMC meeting,
ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that QE3 is a certainty might want to consider the following trades:

  • Going long commodity related names, such as BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), Potash Corp. (NYSE: POT), Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) and Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE: CLF) should work, as they did the first two times around. Commodity related ETFs such as the Copper ETF (NYSE: JJC) may also do well.
  • High beta tech names like Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), ARM Holdings (NASDAQ: ARMH) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) should also work in this scenario.
  • Real estate names, like Simon Property Group (NYSE: SPG) and Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO) should outperform, as hard assets are likely to be great stores of value.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that QE3 is not going to happen may consider alternate positions:

  • Shorting any of the above mentioned names could be profitable if the July jobs report is strong and June is revised sharply higher.
  • Going long the U.S. dollar, and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP) could also be profitable, as the dollar is likely to move higher if no QE is initiated.
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