S&P 500: A Kite Dancing In A Hurricane

Since bottoming during its Sankhya move in 2009, the S&P 500 has rallied sharply—up nearly 795% from that low and 173% since the beginning of its C4 phase in the Adhishthana Cakra Cycle. Most recently, the index formed the Nirvana level at 5097.855 after completing the 24th weekly bar of its C6 phase. This level now acts as a significant anchor and will guide price behavior over the next twelve phases.

For instance, if the index climbs another 3,000 to 4,000 points and is met with a black swan event, the Nirvana level (5097.855) will act as a magnetic pullback zone, just as it did on the 25th bar of C6, when concerns over tariffs and the global trade war triggered a sharp decline. That drop found support exactly at the Nirvana level, from where buying quickly resumed. 

Technically, the index remains within a well-defined bullish channel.

Yet through the lens of Adhishthana Principles, two structural concerns stand out:

• The index did not form the Yajna pattern in C3
• It did not test the Renunciation level in C5
  

These missing elements create a latent imbalance in the cycle. Although momentum and structure remain positive in the near term, this incomplete alignment suggests the potential for a strong Fall of Artah and Artharthi—a set of two significant corrective moves—beginning around 1 March 2027. Given the steep chart structure, if triggered, this could fracture the current Cakra Cycle and set the stage for the more severe Move of Pralay.

Although the trend remains constructive for now, with a higher-high, higher-low formation intact, long-term portfolio structuring, hedge positioning, and large sell-side block execution should factor in the C7 phase decline beginning in March 2027 and extending into mid-2028. This holds particular relevance for institutional investors, macro strategists, and block trade desks managing long-duration exposure.

While the surface suggests strength, the underlying structure is less certain. The S&P 500 continues its ascent—graceful and soaring—but, like a kite, it dances in a hurricane. 

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on the Adhishthana Principles, a proprietary market theory I developed to interpret cyclical and structural patterns in financial markets.