Manufacturing PMI Inches Higher, But Still Signals Industry Contraction, Cements Case For Interest Rates On Hold

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) saw a modest uptick to 47.6 in August, beating market expectations of 47.

While this marks an improvement from the previous month’s nearly three-year low of 46.4, it still signifies the 10th consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity as the gauge remained below the crucial 50-level threshold.

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was upwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 47 to 47.9 in August 2023, down 1.1 points from a month earlier. The report revealed that the sector saw a further deterioration in its business environment in August, largely attributed to a more pronounced decline in new orders.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics painted a nuanced picture of the U.S. labor market for August. Although non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with a gain of 187,000 jobs, the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased from 3.5% to 3.8%, and wage growth rose less than expected.

Overall, this week’s economic data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates further. Markets currently assign only a mere 7% probability of a rate hike occurring in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

U.S. stocks opened slightly higher on Friday, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY up 0.3%, on track for the strongest week of gains since the end of March 2023.

Read now: August Job Creation Tops Forecasts, But Unemployment Ticks Higher, Wage Growth Slows