Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been digesting the Trump-driven post-election surge, with price action at the end of 2025 showing correction and absorption rather than renewed upside momentum.
Post-Election Rally Runs Into Heavy Supply
The 80% surge following the 2024 presidential election pushed Bitcoin aggressively into the $120,000 to $125,000 supply zone.
That region marked a long-standing resistance band where price failed to establish any meaningful base.
Once momentum faded, Bitcoin rolled over quickly, breaking several short-term supports in succession.
Daily Chart Remains Structurally Corrective
BTC Key Technical Levels (Source: TradingView)
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains capped beneath a falling trendline that has guided price lower since the October peak.
Each rebound attempt into that trendline has been rejected.
Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that structure, the broader market posture remains corrective.
The chart does not yet support a sustained bullish continuation.
Additionally, Bitcoin continues to trade below major EMAs, clustered between $95,000 and $103,000.
Those levels now represent active supply.
Rallies into this zone have been met with selling, indicating that traders are using strength to reduce exposure rather than chase upside.
Range-Bound Price Signals Balance, Not Breakout
BTC Range Bound In Shorter Time Frames (Source: TradingView)
Support has formed near $85,000, where buyers stepped in following the November flush.
While that level has held, Bitcoin has struggled to generate follow-through away from it.
Price remains trapped in a broad consolidation range between roughly $88,000 and $94,000.
On the one-hour chart, repeated failures near the upper boundary and steady bids near the lower end point to heavy consolidation.
Spot Outflows Weigh On Upside Attempts
BTC On-Chain Flows (Source: Coinglass)
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has recorded approximately $2.39 billion in net spot outflows.
Even during recent rebound sessions, capital has continued to exit exchanges, a dynamic that typically limits upside momentum.
This divergence explains why the market feels heavy.
Buyers are present enough to prevent a breakdown, but sellers continue to cap rallies.
What Needs To Change For The Bull Case
For Bitcoin to credibly reopen the path toward higher targets, several conditions must be met.
Price needs to reclaim and hold above $94,000.
The falling daily trendline must be broken decisively.
Spot flows must shift from persistent outflows to sustained inflows.
Until those signals appear, upside projections toward $150,000 remain premature.
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