Bitcoin's First Resistance After New Highs Is $115,400: Glassnode

by Murtuza J Merchant Benzinga Staff Writer

Zinger Key Points

Market structure indicates bullish strength, with Bitcoin well above its 111DMA, 200DMA, and 365DMA levels.
The supply cluster thins above current prices, requiring strong demand to break through the $115,400 resistance zone.
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Bitcoin's BTC/USD rally to $110,300, just $2.400 shy of its all-time high, faces its first major resistance at $115,400, according to a Glassnode report on Tuesday.

What Happened: The report highlights this critical threshold as the market enters price discovery, with the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis at $97.6K acting as a key support level.

"On the upside, the $115,400 zone emerges as the first significant resistance should the market enter price discovery," the report states.

After a correction to $101,000, Bitcoin has shown resilience, recovering to $110,300, driven by renewed demand and robust investor confidence.

The report notes that holding above $100,000 signals strong market sentiment, despite a brief dip in the Fear and Greed Index into the ‘Fear' category.

However, volatility risks are rising, with on-chain data indicating a dense cluster of coins near current prices, potentially amplifying price sensitivity.

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are increasingly active, realizing $930 million in daily profits, a level comparable to the $840 million/day seen at the $73,000 all-time high but below the $1.64 billion/day peak during the $100,000 breakout.

"This dynamic suggests that while LTH profit-taking is elevated, current price levels are not yet attractive enough to trigger broader-scale distribution," Glassnode explains.

Despite this, LTH wealth remains high, driven by accumulation and institutional participation, particularly through U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

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Why It Matters: The report also highlights a contrast between on-chain and options markets.

While on-chain metrics suggest rising volatility due to coin supply concentration, options traders are pricing in low volatility, with At-the-Money Implied Volatility (ATM IV) at its lowest since July 2024.

"Historically, such complacency in volatility pricing has often served as a counter-trend signal, preceding periods of heightened volatility," the report warns.

Technical indicators, including the 111-day ($92,900), 200-day ($95,400), and 365-day ($81,700) moving averages, show Bitcoin trading well above these levels, reinforcing bullish momentum.

The STH cost basis, with standard deviation bands at $115,400 (+1σ) and $83,900 (-1σ), further delineates key thresholds.

The report's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric indicates sparse on-chain volume above current prices, suggesting that sustained demand will be critical to push past $115,400.

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