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Apple Experts React To iPhone Maker's Revenue Warning, Coronavirus Threat

February 18, 2020 9:23 am
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Apple Experts React To iPhone Maker's Revenue Warning, Coronavirus Threat

Shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) were trading lower by 2% early Tuesday morning after the iPhone maker said it doesn't expect to meet its prior fiscal second-quarter revenue guidance of $63 to $67 billion due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Here's how several experts reacted to the announcement.

Quantifying Apple's Exposure To China

It is difficult to reasonably estimate the financial impact on Apple from the coronavirus, although it is well-known how big of a market China represents, CNBC's Arjun Kharpal reported on "Squawk Box Europe."

Firsthand accounts in some Chinese cities detail deserted shops, and Apple stores in Beijing are only now starting to re-open.

China accounts for around 15% of Apple's total revenue, but is also a central hub of its global supply chain, he said, adding that a lack of clarity on the supply chain side of the story is related to how quickly factories are producing.

Apple's Numbers 'Not As Negative' As Last Year's Miss, Munster Says 

Loup Ventures' Gene Munster and Will Thompson wrote in a blog post that more than 60% of Apple's revenue is "somehow impacted" by its Chinese supply chain.

So far, firsthand checks of iPhone availability in 13 countries point to no measurable disruption in shipping times, the tech venture capitalists said. Apple could be drawing down its own channel inventory, but expanding waiting times could be seen in the weeks ahead, they said.

Apple will "eventually" show a return to business as usual in China, including a 5% or more revenue growth cadence, Munster and Thompson said.

Finally, Munster and Thompson are modeling Apple revenue in the March-ending quarter to come in at $58 to $60 billion. The estimate is based on a downward revision of Greater China's revenue contribution from a previous estimate of 17% to 12% and a tighter iPhone supply in the back half of the quarter.

Apple Hurting On Two Fronts

Apple faces two headwinds from the coronavirus outbreak in China, D. A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte said on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Tuesday morning.

The first comes in the form of lower sales of devices to Chinese consumers. The second is disruption to Apple's global supply chain, which heavily relies on China.

While Apple may have a greater ability than its peers to offset potential price increases from trade wars, the company's overreliance on China's supply chain is "having a negative impact" in terms of the new coronavirus, the analyst said.

The virus outbreak merely "slows the onset" of Apple's multiyear 5G tailwind, he said. 

Apple Price Action

The stock was down 2.26% at $317.62 in Tuesday's premarket session.

Related Links:

Apple To Miss Q2 Earnings As Coronavirus Outbreak Hits Both Supply And Demand

Global Stocks Drop As Apple, Others Share Grim Outlook Due To Coronavirus Outbreak

Photo courtesy of Apple. 

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