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How Alibaba Shares Make It Over The $200 Level

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How Alibaba Shares Make It Over The $200 Level
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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA)'s stock now has a clear path to trade north of $200 per share, at least according to analysts at HSBC Global Research. The firm's Chi Tsang maintains a Buy rating on Alibaba's stock with a price target boosted from $184 to $204 based on a new financial valuation model (see Tsang's track record here).

The analyst's prior price target was based on a discounted cash flow model for Alibaba and to sum the values of its assets, including Ant Financial and net cash. But now a new valuation divides Alibaba into multiple segments that should be valued differently, including:

    1. The core e-commerce platform.
    2. Alibaba's cloud computing unit.
    3. Digital media and entertainment.
    4. Innovation initiatives and others.

The "additional granularity" of breaking down Alibaba's business by segment makes a more "robust" valuation model as different segments deserve different multiples, the analyst explained. For example, the core e-commerce business should be modeled at 18x fiscal 2019e EBITA which is a premium to the other remaining segments, which are valued at 5x fiscal 2019e revenue.

Here is the analyst's breakdown and value per share per segment:

  • Core e-commerce: $163 per share.
  • Cloud computer: $6 per share.
  • Digital media and entertainment: $8 per share.
  • Innovation and Other: $1 per share.
  • Ant Financial (33 percent stake): $8 per share.
  • Investments: $9 per share.
  • Net cash fiscal 2018e: $10 per share.
  • Target value: $204 per share.

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Image Credit: By Olaf Kosinsky - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0 de, via Wikimedia Commons

Latest Ratings for BABA

DateFirmActionFromTo
Dec 2018MizuhoAssumesBuy
Nov 2018MKM PartnersMaintainsBuyBuy
Nov 2018UBSMaintainsBuyBuy

View More Analyst Ratings for BABA
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

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