Good Morning Traders!
Today is one of the most important sessions of the entire month as the market awaits the FOMC rate decision this afternoon. The consensus expectation is a 25 basis point cut, but the true market-moving event will be the tone of the statement and Powell's press conference. Traders will be focused on whether the committee signals a pause in the cutting cycle or leaves the door open for additional easing. Any shift in language regarding inflation progress, labor market cooling, or financial conditions will have immediate impact on equities, yields, and the dollar.
The morning brings several notable releases that may shape pre-FOMC positioning. At 8:30AM ET we get the Q3 Employment Cost Index, a critical gauge of wage pressures that policymakers have repeatedly highlighted. At 9:45AM ET we get the Bank of Canada interest rate decision, followed by their press conference at 10:30AM ET. At 10:30AM ET we also receive the weekly DoE inventory data which may influence energy markets.
The real event begins at 2PM ET with the FOMC interest rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections. At 2:30PM ET Powell begins his press conference, which historically produces the most violent intraday swings as traders react to every nuance and shift in tone. Expect extreme volatility throughout the afternoon with wider ranges, fast reversals, and sharp expansion in liquidity pockets. Today requires discipline, awareness, and controlled execution
Now, we will discuss SPY, QQQ, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOGL, META, and TSLA.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
SPY begins the session at 682.50, and with FOMC on deck the early tone will matter more than usual. If buyers can steady the tape near this open, a move into 684.00 may take shape as traders position ahead of the announcement. Strength above that zone can open the door toward 686.10, where momentum can begin to accelerate as algorithms lean into pre-FOMC drift. If buyers remain in control, an extension toward 688.25 becomes possible, with a more aggressive upside sweep toward 690.40 if volatility expands later in the session. Any lift today will be less about trend and more about positioning, so every reclaim of overhead liquidity becomes meaningful.
If SPY loses 682.50 early, sellers may drag the index into 680.75. A breakdown there can expose 678.60, where real demand will need to show up to avoid a heavier unwind. If selling pressure increases ahead of Powell, a move into 676.40 may form as traders de-risk. Continued weakness could slide the tape into 674.25. A deeper wash into 672.10 remains possible if the market begins pricing in a more hawkish tone from the press conference, so downside levels require more respect than usual.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ)
QQQ opens at 624.25, and buyers will try to establish footing as tech tends to drive pre-FOMC sentiment. If support holds, a move into 626.00 may follow, where buyers can test early control. Pushing above that may bring 628.10 into view, and a sustained bid can power a run toward 630.25 as traders anticipate dovish language. If volatility expands later in the day, QQQ could stretch toward 632.50, with a maximum pre-FOMC extension into 634.75 if large caps rotate higher together.
If QQQ sinks below 624.25, sellers may quickly pressure price into 622.15. Failure to stabilize can drag the index into 620.00, a level that will determine whether today becomes a fade or a breakdown. A deeper move into 617.90 may appear if the market leans defensive. If sellers gain momentum, QQQ could flush into 615.75, with a heavier slide toward 613.50 possible if traders reposition aggressively before Powell speaks.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Apple begins the day at 277.00, and bulls will attempt to create early balance. If they succeed, price may lift into 278.10, with a further push into 279.25 if the tape firms up ahead of FOMC. Holding strength can bring 280.40 into play, and with enough momentum Apple could stretch toward 281.60. A more powerful move into 282.75 is possible if indices lean higher as traders prepare for Powell.
If Apple loses 277.00, sellers may attempt to fade the stock into 275.85. A breakdown there could send price into 274.65. Continued pressure may pull Apple toward 273.50. If volatility expands and tech weakens, Apple could slide into 272.30, with an extended flush toward 271.15 if markets treat the morning as a de-risking window before the rate decision.
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
Microsoft opens at 486.50 and will be heavily watched as one of the cleanest macro barometers. If buyers defend the open, a move into 488.10 may emerge. Strength above that can lift the tape toward 489.75, and if momentum builds MSFT could climb into 491.40. Sustained buying ahead of the announcement can push the stock toward 493.10, with a stronger extension into 494.90 if markets anticipate a supportive message from Powell.
If MSFT breaks below 486.50, sellers may pressure price into 484.90. A continuation lower may bring 483.20 into focus. If buyers do not step in, a move into 481.55 becomes likely, where liquidity will matter. A deeper slide into 479.90 can appear if risk comes off before the decision. Should the tape turn heavy, MSFT may push toward 478.20.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
NVIDIA starts the session at 185.25, and semis will be extremely sensitive to rate expectations. If support forms, price may lift into 186.40. Strength above that could open a move toward 187.60, with further upside toward 188.85 if flows turn risk-on ahead of FOMC. Should momentum extend, NVIDIA could press into 190.10. A strong tape across semis and AI-related names could even carry price toward 191.40.
If NVIDIA fails to hold 185.25, sellers may lean into 184.00. A sustained breakdown may send price into 182.75. If buyers hesitate, a slide toward 181.55 can unfold. Heavier volatility could trigger a move into 180.25. A deeper wash into 179.00 is possible if the market de-risks aggressively before the rate announcement.
Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:GOOGL)
Alphabet opens at 315.25, and if buyers stabilize the tape early, a move into 316.70 may take shape. Continued strength can push the stock toward 318.10. Should flows improve, GOOGL may extend toward 319.50 with room toward 321.00 if market breadth improves ahead of Powell. A more aggressive bid could stretch into 322.40.
If GOOGL breaks below 315.25, sellers may drive price toward 313.90. Failure to hold could drag the tape into 312.50. A deeper fade may bring 311.10 into view. If tech softens broadly, the stock may slide toward 309.75. If FOMC anxiety rises, GOOGL could probe into 308.40.
Meta Platforms Inc. (META)
Meta begins at 651.75, and buyers will look to reassert control at this level. A move into 654.00 may develop if stabilization holds. Strength above that can carry the stock toward 656.25, with a momentum extension toward 658.50 possible if traders position bullishly ahead of the announcement. If volume expands, META could stretch into 660.75. A more forceful upside move could reach 663.00.
If META loses 651.75, sellers may target 649.25. Continued weakness could drive price toward 646.75. A heavier fade may pull META toward 644.25. If pressure intensifies, a test of 641.75 can appear. A deeper unwind into 639.25 remains possible with elevated pre-FOMC volatility.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
Tesla opens at 447.50, and bulls will try to build a floor. If support holds, Tesla may climb into 449.25. A push above that can create room toward 451.00, with stronger flows possibly driving a move into 452.75. If buyers remain engaged, Tesla could press into 454.50. An extended move into 456.25 can occur if traders lean risk-on before the event.
If Tesla loses 447.50, sellers may test 445.75. A breakdown can drag price toward 444.00. Continued weakness can bring 442.25 into view. If downside accelerates, Tesla may move into 440.50. A deeper slide into 438.75 remains possible if macro tension rises ahead of Powell.
Final Word: Protect your capital and trade safely.
Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
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