Jim Wyckoff's Morning Blog--Tuesday

Tuesday, January 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Most commodity markets are higher early Tuesday, as
the U.S. dollar index trades steady to weaker.
Crude oil and gold are the commodity sector
leaders. As go those two key markets, so will
likely go most other commodity markets. Gold has
seen some near-term chart damage inflicted
recently, but nothing major. With crude oil prices
hovering around $90 a barrel, the crude bulls are
still in overall technical control, despite some
choppy trading at higher price levels.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last
week's high of 1,276.809and then at 1,285.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,264.20 and then
at last week's low of 1,255.80. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit another fresh
three-year high overnight. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,300.00 and then at 2,310.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,280.25 and then at Monday's low
of 2,260.75. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below support at 11,600 and then more stops just
below support at 11,550. Buy stops likely reside
just above technical resistance at last week's high
of 11,682 and then at 11,700. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators
are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages
are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Monday's high of 121 21/32
and then at 122 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 121 2/32 and then at
Monday's low of 120 22/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
 
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

134 4/32--lifetime high
127 21/32--100-day moving average
127 6/32--Previous Month's high
122 7/32--second pivot point resistance
121 27/32--first pivot point resistance
121 21/32--previous day's high
121 14/32--previous day's close
121 1/32--9-day moving average
121 8/32--pivot point
120 23/32--18-day moving average
120 16/32--4-day moving average
120 28/32--first pivot point support
120 22/32--previous day's low
120 9/32--second pivot point support
118 21/32--previous month's low
118 21/32--lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh four-week
high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 121.04.0 and then at 121.16.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 120.25.0 and then at 120.16.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

127 7/32--lifetime high
124 4/32--previous month's high
123 21/32--100-day moving average
121 8/32--second pivot point resistance
121 4/32--first pivot point resistance
121 --previous day's high
120 31/32--previous day's close
120 27/32--pivot point
120 7/32--9-day moving average
120 6/32--4-day moving average
119 30/32--18-day moving average
120 23/32--first pivot point support
120 19/32--previous day's low
120 14/32--second pivot point support
118 17/32--previous month's low
109 25/32--lifetime low

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early
trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 81.38 and then at Monday's high
of 81.63. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.00 and
then at 80.75. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer in early trading today.
A bearish broadening pattern has formed on the
daily bar chart in crude oil. In February crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance
at $90.00 and then at $90.50. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at the overnight low
of $88.93 and then at $88.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. Corn and
bean bulls are regaining upside near-term technical
momentum, but wheat bulls have faded recently.
Grain market traders are looking ahead to Wednesday
morning's batch of USDA reports that includes
quarterly grain stocks and the annual grain
summary. Look for a more active trading day in the
grain markets on Wednesday.