Rivian's stock has been wrestling with long-standing investor debates over execution, cash burn and how the next chapter of its product roadmap unfolds, especially as the broader electric vehicle space continues to cool amid slowing demand and elevated financing costs. Recent macro dynamics have weighed on EV makers across the board, and Rivian is no exception as it pushes to scale production, cut costs, and set the stage for the pivotal R2 launch in 2026.
Against that backdrop, we ran Rivian through an AI price-prediction agent powered by OpenAI's GPT. This forecast focuses squarely on Dec. 12 – Dec. 31, 2025, blending recent price action with technical momentum, a short-term look that sits apart from the longer-term questions around R2 timing and profitability.
What the AI model is actually predicting
- Average predicted price: $15.87
- Implied move: a mild drift lower into year-end as the tape wrestles with mixed sentiment and slowing sector momentum
- Signal snapshot: RSI drops sharply toward year-end, signaling fading near-term momentum, while MACD dips slightly but stays relatively steady, reflecting weakening trend without a full technical breakdown
In practical terms, the model is saying that Rivian's shares could give back a bit of ground this month as investors digest a mix of production scaling narratives and flagging short-term technicals. The RSI's sharp drop suggests rally exhaustion, and while the MACD isn't collapsing outright, its gentle downturn echoes a broader cooling in EV share leadership and rotation into other sectors.
That caution isn't coming out of nowhere. Rivian's revenue and deliveries have shown signs of operational progress including improved gross profits and expanding vehicle output but the company has also narrowed its 2025 delivery forecast and faces persistent cash burn and capital intensity, especially as it builds toward mass production of the R2 SUV expected in 2026.
Meanwhile, macro headwinds for electric vehicles, including weaker demand, the loss of some tax incentives, and broader slowdowns in auto sales, have clouded sentiment for the group, pressuring stocks like Rivian even when underlying metrics show incremental improvement.
Investor debate remains centered on when and how effectively Rivian will transition from its current R1 platform to the more affordable, higher-volume R2 lineup, and whether the company can stretch its cash runway far enough into 2026 without dilutive capital raises. That debate itself is a headwind in a season where technical behavior often trumps long-term storylines.
Put together, this short-term forecast isn't a verdict on Rivian's long-term EV ambitions which still include expanding software revenue and scaling production efficiencies, but rather a near-term reflection of slowing momentum and lingering investor caution as 2025 draws to a close.
Image: Shutterstock
© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
