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Munich, Germany - 22. January 2023: Amazon Web Services (AWS) - AWS website on mobile device

AWS Margin Expansion Drives the Bull Case for Amazon

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) stock remained under pressure Friday after falling nearly 5% Thursday as investors weighed the company’s heavy AI spending, negative trailing free cash flow and broader macro concerns against bullish views on the company.

The stock has gained just 8% in 2026 as its AI capital expenditure strained its free cash flow.

AI Spending And Macro Pressures Weigh

Amazon’s $220 billion 2026 capital spending plan remains a key investor concern as the company pours money into AI infrastructure.

Trailing 12-month free cash flow stood at negative $7.6 billion, adding scrutiny ahead of earnings.

Higher Brent crude prices also revived inflation and borrowing-cost concerns, contributing to broader pressure on technology stocks.

Wagner Sees AWS Economics Improving

Aptus Capital Advisors portfolio manager David Wagner called Amazon his favorite stock and highlighted Amazon Web Services growth of nearly 40%.

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He told CNBC that AWS incremental margins were approaching 40%, roughly 10 to 12 percentage points higher than a year earlier.

Wagner said Amazon’s earlier investments are beginning to create more opportunities to generate profits and argued that continued hyperscaler spending should support the broader AI ecosystem.

Munster Highlights Commerce Strength And AI-Agent Risk

Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster told CNBC that Amazon benefits from consumers already going directly to its platform and from having its own AI capabilities.

However, he said broader personal agents such as Meta Platforms Inc.’s (NASDAQ:META) Muse could challenge closed commerce ecosystems because they can search across retailers.

Munster expects commerce to move increasingly toward interactions between AI agents, which could force Amazon and other retailers to adapt how they attract customers and participate in transactions.

Earnings And Analyst Outlook

Amazon is scheduled to report earnings on Oct. 29, 2026.

Analysts expect EPS of $1.96, up from $1.95 a year earlier, and revenue of $202.24 billion, up from $180.17 billion.

Amazon carries a Buy consensus rating with an average price forecast of $335.62.

Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight and raised its forecast to $350 on Oct. 19. Wells Fargo maintained Overweight but lowered its forecast to $329, while Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight and cut its forecast to $310.

AMZN Price Action: Amazon.com shares were down 0.25% at $249.75 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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