In July, telecom analyst Roger Entner predicted Elon Musk would buy wireless spectrum rather than acquire a mobile carrier. In August, he identified Grain Management’s holdings as a likely target for SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX).
On Oct. 8, SpaceX agreed to acquire those holdings for a reported $8 billion, despite Musk earlier dismissing reports of its interest as “not true.”
Asked how he saw it coming, the Recon Analytics founder told Benzinga: “He’s a builder. He’s not a buyer.”
The Pattern Goes Beyond Building
“The more successful you become, the older you become, the more you follow your pattern,” Entner said.
He sees a chain of businesses that develop and finance technology Musk needs for his ultimate ambition of putting people on Mars.
Musk needs powerful, inexpensive rockets. Launching Starlink satellites gives them a commercial purpose, while the resulting broadband service brings in revenue.
Now Entner expects SpaceX to combine home internet and mobile subscriptions, with Musk designing his own cellular equipment rather than relying on Ericsson or Nokia.
He even suggested Grok could eventually help design the network. Physical construction, however, would be outsourced.
An ‘Earthquake’ or a ‘Sideshow’?
Musk called the agreement an “earthquake” for the telecom industry. But Entner believes the mobile business could matter less to Musk than to established carriers.
“He’s in it for the money. He’s not in it for market share,” he said.
Entner argues Musk doesn’t need to overtake Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ), AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) or T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) in subscribers. He needs Starlink Mobile to generate profits that can finance other ventures.
“What is to a telco the beginning and the end of the world for him, it’s a sideshow almost,” he said.
Entner says Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is developing vehicles, solar technology and robots that Musk could eventually use on Mars. He sees Starlink’s network on Earth as a blueprint for connecting future settlers.
“The next thing he will probably do is create Starlink Mars,” he predicted.
What Investors Should Watch
Starlink is already a major profit engine for SpaceX. Its connectivity business generated $1.7 billion in operating income on $4.3 billion in second-quarter revenue, with sales up 66% from a year earlier.
SpaceX reports third-quarter earnings Tuesday, when investors will get a fresh look at Starlink’s profitability.
On Polymarket, traders give SpaceX a 24% chance of offering its own U.S. mobile plan by the end of 2027, down from 43% Friday, in a market with about $18,000 in trading volume.
A qualifying plan in just one state would count, even using another carrier’s network.
Entner, however, expects SpaceX’s larger mobile network strategy to take until 2030–2032 to come together.
Entner estimates SpaceX could spend another $10 billion to $15 billion building its terrestrial network, excluding spectrum purchases. Musk may not need to overtake Verizon, AT&T or T-Mobile in subscribers, but he’ll still need enough paying customers to make that investment worthwhile.
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