New York City isn’t where Elon Musk will begin challenging America’s mobile giants, according to an analyst who anticipated SpaceX’s (NASDAQ:SPCX) latest spectrum acquisition.
“Not for him,” Roger Entner, founder of Recon Analytics, told Benzinga Friday when asked whether big-city consumers would be early targets.
Instead, Entner predicts SpaceX will build its mobile network from rural America toward cities, reversing the strategy followed by traditional carriers.
Musk Will Start Where His Rivals Are Weak
Conventional carriers build in cities first, where large populations justify expensive infrastructure, then expand outward.
Entner expects Musk to do the opposite. He estimates that roughly 90% of Starlink’s U.S. internet customers are rural, giving SpaceX an existing foothold.
“He plays where he’s strong and the other guys are weak,” Entner said, arguing that Musk needs to “fight asymmetrically.”
Entner acknowledged that satellites struggle to provide indoor coverage, meaning SpaceX will need terrestrial infrastructure as it moves toward more populated areas.
“Think rural in,” he said.
Entner noted that roughly 40% of Americans live outside the country’s 100 largest markets.
A $15 Billion Network?
Entner estimates SpaceX could build a “pretty robust network” for $10 billion to $15 billion, excluding additional spectrum purchases.
That’s far below TD Cowen’s estimate of more than $80 billion for a competitive nationwide network. Entner’s figure assumes a rural-first rollout that adds urban infrastructure as demand grows, rather than matching incumbents city by city.
He also expects SpaceX to develop its own cellular equipment rather than buy it from Ericsson or Nokia, while outsourcing physical construction.
Entner pointed to Starlink’s router, which he called “by far the best router in the industry,” as evidence Musk could develop superior cellular equipment rather than rely on established manufacturers.
SpaceX’s latest spectrum deal, reportedly worth $8 billion, sent T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS), AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) sharply lower on Oct. 9.
Asked how worried the incumbents should be, Entner replied: “They’re all very worried and they should be.”
When Will SpaceX Become a Serious Threat?
Entner expects the major components of the network to come together around 2030 to 2032.
Asked whether SpaceX could offer even a limited service substantially sooner, he replied, “No,” citing the time needed to incorporate satellite connectivity technology into devices and satellites and build cell sites.
On Polymarket, traders on Friday gave SpaceX a 41% chance of offering its own U.S. mobile plan by the end of 2027, with approximately $6,000 in trading volume.
The contract could resolve Yes with a publicly available plan in just one state, even if SpaceX relies on another carrier’s network.
Entner did not assess that specific contract, but his forecast suggests SpaceX could become a formidable challenger to Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile, even if that threat remains years away.
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