Fed 'Flying Blind' As Shutdown Erases October Jobs, Inflation Reports

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is set to end within hours—but it's already left a lasting scar on the economy's data map since two of the most vital inputs for the Federal Reserve won't be released.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt took the data blackout as an opportunity to pass the blame.

“Democrats permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” she claimed. "All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Federal Reserve flying blind at a critical period.”

It’s worth noting that the Trump administration has sought to reorganize statistical agencies, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, sparking bipartisan concerns about the politicization of economic data.

See Also: Elizabeth Warren Blasts Trump For Trying To ‘Kill’ CFPB As Court Undermines Funding: ‘Absurd And Plainly Illegal’

A Hectic December Awaits The Fed

The timing couldn't be more sensitive. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Dec. 17–18, and expectations for what the Fed will do are still quite open.

According to Peter Williams, analyst at 22V Research, we'll first see a wave of September and third-quarter data, likely released in stages over the next two to three weeks.

“We will get the Sept and Q3 data fairly promptly, likely done by Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter.”

That includes delayed retail sales, personal income, and—eventually—third-quarter GDP, which is still expected to show a strong 3–4% annualized growth rate.

However, the fourth quarter economic data is where the real hit lands. The shutdown's direct economic drag—missed wages, frozen benefits, delayed spending—is likely to shave 0.75–1% off fourth-quarter GDP growth. That drop may reverse in first-quarter 2026, but it creates a temporary dent at a fragile moment.

“Catching up will take time and could still limit data availability for the Dec Fed meeting,” Williams said.

Still, private sector activity appears resilient. "Private final demand will be much less impacted and should keep chugging along at or just below its recent 2.5%+ trend," he added.

Retail spending held up through October, according to bank earnings and Redbook data, and jobless claims remain stable.

What Data The Fed Will—And Won't—Have Before Its Meeting

Here's what the coming weeks look like, according to Williams:

• September data: Starts arriving next week, including payrolls, retail sales, and personal income. These will likely be wrapped by early December.
• October data: Partial and delayed. The CPI and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation numbers are not expected to be published. "Probably for the best we don't get it," Williams said of what would have been a heavily imputed CPI print.
• November data: May trickle in slowly, but won't all be ready before the FOMC meeting. The November employment report, scheduled right before the Fed decision, could be "delayed a little," he noted, and even if published, "unclear if it will have a household survey attached."

"By mid-Dec we are likely largely caught up with the delayed data and schedules return to normal post-Fed meeting," Williams predicted.

Until then, expect noise, delays, and ambiguity.

As of Thursday, CME FedWatch shows a 65% chance of a December rate cut, which would be the third consecutive move lower.

Still, it's not guaranteed. Williams said the underlying economic narrative remains "strong" on spending and "soft but steady-ish" on labor, offering the Fed just enough to justify patience—if it chooses.

The only thing that's clear? "It will be a hectic next month," Williams said.

Now Read:

• Goldman Sees S&P 500 At 9,000 By 2030—But The Real Boom Lies Elsewhere

Image: Shutterstock