Is Trump's Economy Really The 'Greatest' In US History?

President Trump has frequently claimed his administration delivered the “greatest economy” in American history. As Trump returns to the White House in 2025, examining the economic data from his first term reveals a more nuanced picture than campaign rhetoric suggests.

The Trump Economic Record: By the Numbers

Trump’s presidency from 2017 to early 2020 showed solid economic performance before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global markets. GDP growth averaged 2.67% annually during his first three years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

That growth rate ranks respectably but falls short of historical peaks. The economy expanded faster under Presidents Bill Clinton (3.88% average) and Ronald Reagan (3.48% average). Even President Lyndon B. Johnson oversaw stronger GDP growth during the 1960s expansion.

Unemployment did reach a 50-year low of 3.5% in late 2019, a genuine achievement. The labor market added approximately 6.7 million jobs from January 2017 to February 2020, continuing trends that began during the previous administration’s recovery from the Great Recession.

Stock Market Performance

The stock market delivered strong returns during Trump’s first term, with the S&P 500 gaining roughly 67% from inauguration through the end of his presidency, including the pandemic recovery period.

However, market performance alone doesn’t determine presidential economic success. Stock gains during Trump’s tenure lagged behind returns seen during Clinton’s presidency and matched roughly with Obama-era gains when measured from their respective starting points.

Investors should note that Federal Reserve monetary policy, corporate earnings and global economic conditions influence markets alongside presidential policies. Attributing market movements solely to any single president oversimplifies complex dynamics

Tax Cuts and Deficits

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act represented Trump’s signature economic legislation. Corporate tax rates dropped from 35% to 21%, while individual rates saw modest reductions across most brackets.

Supporters credit the tax cuts with spurring business investment and wage growth. Critics point to ballooning federal deficits that grew by nearly $8 trillion during Trump’s four years, including pandemic spending.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected the tax cuts would add $1.9 trillion to deficits over a decade. Whether that tradeoff delivered sufficient economic benefits remains debated among economists.

Trade Policy and Manufacturing

Trump’s aggressive trade stance, including tariffs on Chinese goods and renegotiation of NAFTA into the USMCA, aimed to boost American manufacturing. Manufacturing employment increased by 414,000 jobs through early 2020.

However, manufacturing’s share of total employment remained relatively flat. Some economists argue tariffs raised costs for American businesses and consumers without substantially reshoring production.

Comparing Presidential Economic Records

Ranking presidential economies requires choosing metrics carefully. Trump’s pre-pandemic economy performed well by most measures but doesn’t statistically qualify as the strongest in American history by GDP growth, job creation rates or wage growth acceleration.The post-World War II expansion, Reagan’s recovery from recession and Clinton’s technology boom all showed stronger economic metrics in key categories.

What This Means for Investors

As Trump continues his second term, investors should focus on policy specifics rather than historical comparisons. His administration’s approach to taxes, regulation, trade and Federal Reserve relations will shape market conditions going forward. Economic data provides useful context for evaluating political claims, but investors benefit most from analyzing current conditions and forward-looking indicators rather than debating historical rankings.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.