President Trump has tapped Kevin Warsh, but on Polymarket, the “fat lady” hasn’t sung—and a group of mystery whales are betting a fortune that Warsh is in for an unexpected disappointment. 

On Jan 30th, after Trump announced his pick, Judy Shelton sat at 0.1% odds, but the last days have seen a sudden influx of buying volume on the gold-standard advocate, pushing her to to over 2%.

Who Is Betting On Judy Shelton

On-chain data from Polymarket reveals that of the top ten holders of Judy Shelton shares, 7 are brand new accounts with no prior trading history.

The top ten accounts have collectively poured over $125,000 into Shelton “Yes” shares in just the last two days, sweeping the order book between 0.8 cents and 2.1 cents.

If Warsh's nomination hits a snag and Shelton is tapped as the replacement, these traders stand to profit roughly $9 million—a roughly 70x return on capital.

The “Hard Money” Halo: Why Crypto Loves Shelton

Unlike Warsh, who represents the banking establishment, Shelton has openly advocated for a return to a gold standard and has questioned the Federal Reserve's monopoly on currency.

Shelton has spoken favorably about “alternative currencies” that can compete with the dollar, viewing them as a necessary check on government money printing.

Her “sound money” doctrine essentially treats gold as the ultimate truth, a view that aligns perfectly with the deflationary ethos of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC). and the broader crypto market.

If she were to shockingly take the Chair, it would be viewed as the ultimate validation for the “End the Fed” trade—and could spark a parabolic run in Gold, Bitcoin, and other hard assets.

The XRP Connection

There is also a specific, persistent rumor mill linking Shelton to the XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) community. 

Shelton's academic work focuses on a “New Bretton Woods”—a global financial reset where currencies are pegged to a neutral reserve asset.

For years, XRP enthusiasts have theorized that Ripple's technology could serve as the bridge currency in exactly this kind of system.

While Shelton has never explicitly endorsed XRP, her philosophy of a “neutral, international” monetary standard is music to the ears of the XRP Army, leading to speculation that her appointment could fast-track the token’s adoption in global settlements.

Thom Tillis to the rescue?

With Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) threatening to blockade the confirmation process over the DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Powell, the path for Kevin Warsh is not a straight line.

If the Senate deadlocks, the Trump administration could consider a “Recess Appointment”—a maneuver Trump has floated since November 2024 to bypass Senate obstructions.

This move would bypass the confirmation vote, but would face legal and procedural challenges.

Thus, while the market says there is a 98% chance Kevin Warsh is nominated to be the next Fed Chair, a few daredevil whales are happy to bet on the unexpected.

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